EconAir

Secretary of the Treasury UPDATE (8/2026) The expected yearly deficit for fiscal year 2026, ending September 30, 2026, is $2.1 trillion. This is higher than the deficit of $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2025. One reason is that the expected $200 billion increase in government revenue from increased tariffs has to be refunded to importers and American companies because the Supreme Court declared the tariffs unconstitutional. The national debt will be around $40 trillion by the end of this fiscal year. Total interest expense will be around $1.1 trillion, with the interest rate a little under 3%. Thus interest expense is now half of the total yearly deficit. Another way of looking at this is that half of the yearly deficit goes to paying interest on the national debt. Projections are that the national debt will be around $50 trillion in five years (FY 2031). Yearly interest expense might be between $1.5 trillion and $2.0 trillion, which assumes an interest rate of 3% to 4%. Thes...

FIND POSTS BY CATEGORY The Beginning of the Modern Global Economy:  The Economic Rise of England Before the Industrial Revolution The Beginning of the Industrial Revolution in England and America The theme of the following five sections of the blog is that innovation and information, not price competition, are the main factors for understanding economic growth, competition, market structure and analysis. Basic Concepts and Theory Corporate Strategies And Management Market Behavior and Structure Market Dynamics and Information:  How Markets Work Economic Theory and Markets There is beginning a historic change in future populations and their demographics. This will interact with other variables and have a serious, maybe profound, effect on future economic growth. Demographics, Population Projections and Economics American History American Economic History Politics of the United States The Roman Republic and America - Differences and Some Possible Parallels China India Niger...