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Birth Rates and Population Projection Issues

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    Demographic Issues   This is a summary of the essays in this blog on demographic projections.    It is not only the arc of population increases and then decreases that is important. It is what happens under the arc. Birth rates fall below replacement, the number of births go down, the size of the labor force decreases while the number of retired people go up. Eventually, the number of older citizens start to go down and the total population decreases faster and in larger numbers. This scenario happens in an increasing number of countries and then for the global population.   The demographic projections and discussion in this blog are based on the Lancet projections of birth rates and population using 2017-2020 data. Forecasts for global trends and for some countries have changed since the Lancet projections. The key projection is birth rates for each country, for geographical regions, and for the entire world.   But how good are estimates of future...
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India and the Future Global Balance of Power

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    INTRODUCTION     Geopolitics looks at geography and history as inputs into the relations among nations. A corollary is that countries have “natural” opponents and allies. But how this works out depends on the domestic and foreign policies of the leaders and governments of the countries.   The theme of this essay is the current and possible future the role of India in the evolving global balance of power. One topic is India’s strategic objectives in the Indian Ocean and stronger ties with other Asian countries. Another is the points of rivalry between India and China. They intersect.   INDIA AND THE INDIAN OCEAN: FUTURE STRATEGIC RIVALRY WITH CHINA?    India might become a major regional and possibly global power. India’s strategic interests center on the Indian Ocean. India is developing a “blue-water” navy for the vast Indian Ocean, which stretches 6.000 miles from East Africa to Indonesia. It competes with China’s strategy to have a naval pr...
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Immigrants and American Economic Development

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  Immigrants and their children account for a disproportionate number of entrepreneurs and CEOs of technology companies. Half of the graduate students in engineering, math and science in US universities are foreigners. In the past, a high percent stayed in the United States after graduation. Immigrants are founders or current CEOs of most of America’s leading tech companies. (Nvidia, Google, Microsoft, Tesla, AMD, Intel)   The economic impact and importance of companies founded by immigrants or their children. More than 46 percent of Fortune 500 companies in 2025 (231 out of 500) were founded by immigrants or their children, including: 109 companies founded by immigrants. 122 companies founded by children of immigrants. Among the 14 companies that appeared on the Fortune 500 list for the first time this year, 10 were founded by immigrants or their children. In fiscal year 2024, these 231 Fortune 500 companies generated $8.6 trillion in revenue—an amount that, if compared with ...
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