India and the Future Global Balance of Power
INTRODUCTION
Geopolitics looks at geography and history as inputs into the relations among nations. A corollary is that countries have “natural” opponents and allies. But how this works out depends on the domestic and foreign policies of the leaders and governments of the countries.
The theme of this essay is the current and possible future the role of India in the evolving global balance of power. One topic is India’s strategic objectives in the Indian Ocean and stronger ties with other Asian countries. Another is the points of rivalry between India and China. They intersect.
INDIA AND THE INDIAN OCEAN: FUTURE STRATEGIC RIVALRY WITH CHINA?
India might become a major regional and possibly global power. India’s strategic interests center on the Indian Ocean. India is developing a “blue-water” navy for the vast Indian Ocean, which stretches 6.000 miles from East Africa to Indonesia. It competes with China’s strategy to have a naval presence in the Indian Ocean, if only to protect its global trade routes, especially the oil supply line from the Persian Gulf through the Indian Ocean to the Malacca Strait. China imports 10 million barrels of oil per day; most of it travels through the Indian Ocean.
The Malacca Strait connects the Indian Ocean with the South China Sea, which is crucial to China’s security objectives.
At the eastern end of the Indian Ocean where it connects with the South China Sea, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Indonesia are under pressure from China. Malaysia and Indonesia are experiencing increasing Islamic influence and political power. This could be an impediment to close political ties with India if India is perceived as discriminating against its Muslim minority.
Vietnam, which has a long history of an adversarial relationship with China, is a possible “natural” geopolitical ally.
India is building up and modernizing its navy but so is China. India has the world’s fourth largest navy but it is only half the size of China’s navy. China is also helping Pakistan expand its navy. The difference is that India is focused on the Indian Ocean while China’s navy is focused on China’s strategies of projecting power in the South China Sea and countering the large American presence in the western Pacific.
India might become a part of an anti-Chinese military coalition or alliance system that includes countries on China’s periphery. Besides the South China Sea countries, it might include Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Australia.
Right now the crucial Persian Gulf and Malacca Strait is patrolled by the United States navy. The United States is beginning to look like a “overstretched” military power. Navies are very expensive. In the future, the American navy may not be able to fulfill all its global commitments. Countries along the Persian Gulf and the Malacca Strait may not want to see the American navy replaced by the Chinese navy. India would be the natural geopolitical alternative.
China will eventually be competing with Russia in North Asia after China no longer needs Russian oil and natural gas, a political consequence of China’s huge domestic investment in all forms of renewable energy and electric vehicles. Much of Russia’s Far East is land that was part of China but grabbed by tsarist Russia; it is an area with very few Russians and a growing Chinese population. Russia may be less of a factor in North Asia; China may be more of a direct threat to Japan and South Korea. In the background is control of the Bering Strait as an avenue to future Arctic trade routes.
China has been a big supporter of Pakistan, with a major investment in a port (Gwadar) near the entrance to the Persian Gulf, complete with roads, a railroad, and an oil pipeline linking Pakistan with China. India, in return, has beefed up a port near Gwadar in retaliation. A similar situation in Bangladesh. China has built a port in the Bay of Bengal; India is expanding a nearby port.
India’s port is also part of a transportation network to access the Northeast provinces of India. India and China are vying for influence in this region, which has had successionist movements.
Russia has supported India in the past. Much of India’s military gear is Russian. The Russian army has performed poorly in Ukraine, partly because of inadequate systems needed for modern warfare. India is diversifying its sources of similar weapons. Russia does not seem able to produce the advanced military technology systems that future militaries must have. India buys this gear from a number of countries, including air-defense systems from Israel. At the recent AI expo in India, Modi and France’s president announced a major purchase of French fighter jets. Canada’s prime minister recently visited India. Apparently they discussed Canada as a possible source of oil and natural gas. This has become a critical issue for India as American and Israeli attacks on Iran, and Iran’s launching of missiles and drones against Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf, again highlight the risks of getting oil and natural gas from the Persian Gulf.
India’s recent trade and security agreement with the European Union and the war in Ukraine does not seem to affect India’s long-term ties with Russia.
INDIA IN A BAD NEIGHBORHOOD
The partition of India in 1947 presented India with problems near at home. India is surrounded by failed or “fragile” states – Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. One removed are Myanmar and Afghanistan.
PAKISTAN AND BANGLADESH
Pakistan and Bangladesh (formerly East Pakistan) were the Muslim states created at partition in 1947. This complicates India’s relationship with outside powers. Historically, Afghanistan was the northwest frontier of greater India. Many invaders from Central Asia or from Afghanistan itself came down to conquer the Indian heartland of the Gangetic plain. Recently, Pakistan supported the Taliban and gave refuge to millions of Afghans. But a Pakistani Taliban supported by Afghanistan is now a threat to Pakistan. Pakistan has forced two million Afghan refugees back into Afghanistan and will probably deport most of the remaining two million Afghanis in Pakistan. Border clashes have escalated to fighting along the border and Pakistani bombing of Afghan cities.
The deteriorating relations and recent outbreak of hostilities between Pakistan and Afghanistan lessens the possibility of Pakistan-Afghanistan-China cooperation along the strategic Northwest corridor to India.
Pakistan might break up, with or without India’s help. In 80 years since independence, Pakistani governments have not been able to develop Pakistan. Pakistan’s powerful military controls the government and owns some of the country’s economy. Pakistan has a weak infrastructure (wonky electrical grid) and serious ecological problems (global warming, lack of water). Combined with a population of about 260 million (2026) and a high birth rate of over 3.0, Pakistan is close to a failed state. A very young population with high unemployment and poor prospects has been in other countries a recipe for disorder or revolution.
Southern regions of Pakistan – Baluchistan and Sindh – are not happy about being parts of a Pakistani state dominated by the Punjabi in the north. There have been violent separatist movements in Baluchistan; Baluchs would like to be free of both Pakistan and Iran. This could lead to direct military rule (again), expanding radical Islamist influence, and stronger successionist movements. It is hard to see how this would benefit India, except possibly in Kashmir.
The Indian army helped Bangladesh become free of Pakistani rule in 1971. There is a connection between the two countries because of the large Bengali population in both countries.
After decades of political mismanagement, street demonstrations forced Bangladesh’s violent and ruthless leader to flee. The recent election in Bangladesh gives hope that a democratic government might start to deal with Bangladesh’s serious problems.
India might help. But there is current bad feeling in Bangladesh towards India because India gave asylum to Bangladesh’s deposed leader.
Bangladesh is very poor and very crowded. The country is almost the same size of Iowa. Iowa has 3.2 million residents. Bangladesh has about 176 million people. Imagine putting half of America’s population in Iowa.
OTHER COUNTRIES
Sri Lanka has had no end of troubles. After a long and very bloody civil war between its two main ethnic groups, it was followed by a serious economic crisis. Sri Lanka’s poverty rate doubled to 30%. As the country was recovering, it was hit by a devastating cyclone in November, 2025. India has been the only country to promise aid and subsidized loans, possibly because of the ties between the Tamil population in southern India and the Tamils in Sri Lanka.
Sri Lanka is one of many poor countries that has accepted China’s offer to help build infrastructure, in this case an expanded and modernized port. The conditions were that Sri Lanka would use a Chinese construction company and mostly Chinese workers, and finance the project by borrowing the money from China. Sri Lanka has had trouble meeting loan payments but China refuses to renegotiate the loan.
There is no threat of India being invaded by countries in Central Asia. But there are long historical and cultural ties. Central Asia is now a contested region between Russia and China. If Russian influence weakens, there may be an opportunity for India as ethnic groups and countries in the region look to India as a “neutral” ally. Another source of Indo-Chinese rivalry. This would be an interesting reversal of Mackinder’s Heartland theory.
Iran is another possible ally. There is a long relationship between India and Iran. Persian was the court language for many centuries in India. Persian art and culture were combined with Indian culture. Ties between Iran and India may depend on what type of government Iran has in the future. Shi’ite Iran may be wary of a Sunni, increasingly Islamist Pakistan. Less likely but possible, Iran in the future might be an ally of India in Central Asia and in projecting naval power in the western Indian Ocean.
So it lines up like this. India, Russia, possibly Vietnam against China and Pakistan. Other possible allies are counties on the littoral of the Indian Ocean or in the South China Sea who are afraid of China’s naval power. Further afield, countries in Central Asia and Iran are at least areas of possible Indian influence.
INDIA AND THE UNITED STATES AND EUROPE
Relations with the United States and with Europe are more uncertain. India as part of its modernizing campaign and desire to become a larger part of the global economy has just signed a comprehensive trade and investment agreement with the European Union. There was also a security and defense partnership. Relations with the United States, long strained by India’s “non-alignment” foreign policy during the Cold War, seem to be becoming more cordial as the United States focuses on China, rather than Russia, as its primary geopolitical enemy. India then becomes a potential geopolitical ally. With the U.S. Navy stretched from the Persian Gulf to the western Pacific, America might welcome allied naval power in the Indian Ocean. Also, it appears that President Trump sees Narendra Modi as a fellow strongman he can “deal” with.
India and the United States recently signed an outline for a tariff and investment deal. Then Trump greatly increased the tariff because, supposedly, India was buying discounted Russian oil. Trump has reversed his decision but, like everywhere else, the United States is appearing as an unreliable ally.
A lot depends on the United States. America is beginning to look like Paul Kennedy’s “overstretched” imperial power. The United States continues to run large yearly government deficits. Interest payments on America’s national debt is already equal to America’s military budget and is forecasted (Congressional Budget Office) to increase by about the same amount as future income tax revenue. America may be reducing its military presence in Europe. It also may be forced to reduce its naval and air power in the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean as it concentrates on the growing Chinese naval power in the western Pacific. A substitute allied military force aimed at China could include India.
DEMOGRAPHICS AND GEOPOLITICS
India is on a path to become the third largest economy in the world, passing Germany and Japan. In 2025, India’s GDP was $4.1 trillion compared to Japan’s $.3 trillion and Germany’s $5.0 trillion. India could pass Japan as soon as 2027 and Germany in 2028 if current growth rates continue.
A comment about growth rates. India has been growing at 7% per year. If it can continue this growth rate, its economy will double in 10 years and be four times as large in 20 years; in 20 years, India’s economy could be as big as China’s is now. Japan and Germany are growing at 1-2% per year. If this continues, they will double in size in 35-70 years.
Both India and China have populations of 1.4 billion. China’s population growth is starting to decrease slowly but India’s population is expected to grow another 200 million until reaching a maximum amount in the late 2040s.
Of the five countries, India’s birth rate is the highest. It is currently at replacement compared to very low birth rates in China, Japan, and Germany. America’s birth rate is also below replacement. Population in China, Japan, and Germany is beginning to fall. Population in the United States will grow slowly if net immigration is positive; if not, the United States will reach its maximum population in 2031 (Congressional Budget Office’s latest estimate).
As a result, India has a younger population with 40% under the age of 25. It will be facing the problems and costs of a rapidly-increasing older population later than the other four countries. On the other hand, India, like China, has high youth unemployment.
There may be geopolitical consequences as China’s population decreases and ages while India’s population increases and is relatively younger. China may have to divert more of its resources to pensions and healthcare for the elderly, although this has not happened yet. Like in other countries, these demographic changes seem to have reduced economic growth rates. Germany, Japan, and the United States are facing the domestic problem of needing immigrants as the size of their work forces shrink but facing domestic political opposition to increased immigration.
DOMESTIC PROBLEMS
Much depends on India’s domestic policies. The current government is promoting Hindu nationalism and discriminating against India’s large Muslim minority. India is in a race between continued economic growth and demographic forces. Right now, India’s birth rate has come down to the replacement level. But past higher birth rates and longer life expectancies will probably mean that India’s population of 1.4 billion will increase by about 200 million before it reaches its maximum.
India has a young population without the large percent of older citizens that China has. But India needs to exhibit high economic growth rate to absorb its large numbers of unemployed and underemployed young citizens and its increasing future population. Like in China, there are high rates of unemployment among young workers. Also like China, many find employment in the “gig” economy, especially as part-time delivery and ride-hailing drivers. It is hard to estimate the economic impact of this since India already has a large “informal” economy.
India has a serious problem with air pollution. The air quality of Delhi is so bad that there are seldom days with blue skies and its airport sometimes must close because of poor visibility. Air pollution has worsen in other cities, caused by a big increase in the number of motor vehicles, industrial pollution, farmers burning agricultural waste, and the burning of coal.
Related, India’s coal producers form a powerful political group. But India, it would seem, should have a strong interest in rapidly moving towards electric vehicles and renewable energy. This would reduce large imports of oil and natural gas. Terrible air pollution scares away tourists, adversely affects the economy, and the health of Indians. One study estimates that air pollution contributes to 1.7 million deaths per year.
Even with somewhat slower economic growth rates in the future, India will probably become the world’s third largest economy. Some Indian commentators have noted wryly that India now has a larger economy than its former colonial master, England.
India, in the past, has had strong internal regional cultures and languages, and resistance to a national government in the north. Economic development in the south and central regions, especially the tech centers of Bangalore and Hyderabad, may mitigate historical opposition to Delhi. This might be a political benefit as India makes a concerted effort to modernize and join the global economy. India recently held a huge exposition to attract AI investment and promote deals with Indian companies. The highlight was a picture of Modi raising hands with the founders of OpenAI and Anthropic.
India continues to liberalize its internal laws and regulations left over from the early decades of independence of socialism and pervasive regulations. Manufacturing, especially electronics, is growing rapidly. This should encourage Indian businesses to expand and promote global trade and investment.
As countries redirect trade and investment away from the United States and China, India should benefit. Modi has eliminated many of the barriers against foreign investment in India. Apple has moved some of its assembly work to India and Vietnam; one-fourth of its iPhones are assembled in India. India might be seen as an alternative manufacturing base to China for multinational companies.
India has just concluded a comprehensive trade treaty with the European Union. Canada and India are talking about a major trade deal. A consequence of these trends is that the Indian Ocean will become a more important shipping route for global trade.
The global trading history of India and the English East India Company is about to be repeated. Only in reverse. Another indication that the 450-year period of European expansion and colonialism has come to an end.
The northeast part of India borders China and Myanmar.
There are eight states in this area and Christianity is dominant in three of these states. Christians make up sizeable minorities in several others. Christianity has been an important religion in these states for over a century.
These states are considered "tribal" by the Indian (Hindu) government and like Christian tribal areas elsewhere in India they receive inadequate government resources. As a result, some of these states, like Nagaland (almost 90% Christian) have been in rebellion against the government for decades. In other states, like Manipur, have on-going conflicts between various ethnic groups, none of which have much fondness for the Hindu government in New Delhi. There are successionist movements in several of these states.
China is active in this part of India and even claims the largest state, Arunachal Pradesh, is part of Tibet.
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The problems in the Northeast are overshadowed by Kashmir. Kashmir is divided into regions controlled by Pakistan, India, and China.
The basic internal problem India has, and has always had, is that the South Asia area is incredibly diverse, fragmented, and difficult to rule from a central government. Central control was almost always in the past been imposed from outside - Muslim invaders from central Asia or Christian invaders from England. The difference is that the central government now is domestic and Hindu. But that is only partially true for the region because of the partitions. And the current government seems intent on making non-Hindus second-class citizens. Besides Muslims, that includes "tribal" areas.
This points out another area of Indian-Chinese rivalry. India has been focused on Pakistan since independence. They have fought three wars. Kashmir is an ongoing source of conflict. Except for its nuclear weapons, I don't think Pakistan poses any military threat to India. India has a much larger and better army. Pakistan lost East Pakistan (Bangladesh) in 1971 - half of Pakistan's population. Pakistan is a mess, with a bad economy, a large and growing population, serious ecological problems, and many areas either wanting out or sees the Punjabi-military government as a threat. So that focuses India on China. One area is that India and China have conflicting claims along their common borders in the north.
The main potential area of contention is the Indian Ocean, which is wide, diversified, with many different countries and cultures. In the long run, can India find allies, who are also worried about the geopolitical influence of China? I don't know. In addition, the Indian Ocean is connected economically, thru the Malacca Strait, with the South China Sea. China's frontier. China gets most of its oil from the Middle East and much of its trade with the rest of the world thru the Indian Ocean.
I think countries facing China in the South China Sea are very nervous about what China will do in the future. Like Europe after WWII facing the Soviet Union, these countries are relying on America as a counter-weight and potential protector. These countries seem to be moving (slowly) towards some sort of closer military and economic cooperation but they all have a basic problem. China is their main trading partner. Even more so because of US tariffs. Trade among Asian countries is small compared to trade with China. And China is rapidly developing a blue-water navy. There is some doubt about whether the U.S. would defend Taiwan. What about the Philippines?
Asian countries may increase their trade with India, and even some more military cooperation. But India cannot project power. Yet.
If the world increasing breaks into two power and trading blocs, India maybe become an attractive third alternative. This might be particularly appealing to Asian countries.
SUMMARY
Economic Growth India has a large economy and currently enjoys high real economic growth rates. But because of its huge and growing population, India has low real income per capita.
India as a Global Power In the past, India has projected itself as a “third world” leader. It might do so again as many independent countries may want to avoid having to choose between China and America. But China is the main trading partner of most countries. Some of these countries are beginning to feel uneasy about this relationship as China aggressively increases exports to other countries to make up for lower exports to the United States. This creates larger trade deficits and possible threats to local producers. Chinese companies are moving some of their assembly work, especially EVs, to importing countries but this may not be enough to assuage fears of being economically dominated by China. Projecting power There is little to be gained from trying to improve relations with neighbors. This is currently impossible with Pakistan. Relations with other neighbors may entail aid and involvement with their serious problems. And there is the ongoing problem of rivalry with China on India’s norther periphery.
Alliances with Asian nations Any type of closer cooperation with other Asian nations has to deal with the fact all are attempting to attract foreign investment, much of it from multinational companies diversifying away from China. Stronger economic and security aimed at China may be possible in the future.
For some historical background, see For an introduction to the geopolitical aspects of India and the other countries bordering the Indian Ocean, see Robert D. Kaplan, Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power, 2010. Somewhat dated but still relevant.
This recent article goes into detail about the Indian-Chinese rivalry in the Northeast region of India.
https://orcasia.org/article/1104/chinas-strategic-encroachment-in-indias-northeast
The best ongoing coverage of India and neighboring countries is in The Economist.
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