EconAir

    INTRODUCTION   Geopolitics looks at geography and history as inputs into the relations among nations. A corollary is that countries have “natural” opponents and allies. But how this works out depends on the domestic and foreign policies of the leaders and governments of the countries. The history of long-distance Eurasian trade highlights the crucial role of India and the Indian Ocean. For over 2,500 years, the Indian Ocean was the vital route of trade between Europe and the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and China. India was the transshipment center of this trade. Today, 85% of global trade in goods goes by sea. Over 40% is oil. There are three major "choke-points" in seaborne trade - the Red Sea/Suez Canal, the Persian Gulf/Strait of Hormuz, and the Strait of Malacca. Ships from the first two enter the Indian Ocean; the Malacca Strait is the Indian Ocean exit to east Asia.       The theme of this essay is the current and possible future the role...

BACKGROUND Over the last two years, Iran's influence in the Middle East has declined. Iran lost a client state when the people of Syria overthrew the vicious regime of Assad. Hezbollah has been weakened by Israeli attacks and, after attacking Israel, Hamas and Gaza has been massively assaulted by Israel, which occupies part of Gaza. Hamas was trained, armed, and financed by Iran. Iran's air defenses were degraded by earlier American and Israeli attacks. The Iranian economy continues to weaken. Very high inflation rates and probable economic contraction and shortages. Much of the economy controlled by the Revolutionary Guards and the religious hierarchy. Massive demonstrations brutally put down by an extensive and brutal internal security force. An aging ayatollah, whose imminent death might have led to a power struggle among various groups in the government and security forces. It has always been recognized by the Gulf States and  American national security analysts (according ...

There are two kinds of empires: the kind that rules through ruthless exploitation, and the kind that seeks to induce allies into defending themselves through economic incentives. (George Friedman) INTRODUCTION America's power and influence in the world rests on three broad, interrelated bases: 1) Overwhelming military power that can be projected anywhere in the world,   supplemented by security arrangements with allies and supporters. 2) A large, innovative, dynamic domestic economy as the basis for global economic and technological leadership. The economy provides the resources and technology to support the military and a global foreign policy. 3) Claims to moral and ideological leadership and influence, particularly the promotion of liberal democratic societies and supporting political institutions. This post will discuss the economic aspects and related security objectives of American foreign policy. It will focus on the structure of the global...