EconAir

    INTRODUCTION:  SIMILARITIES AND DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 1929 AND 2020   Gamestop! Short squeeze! Bitcoin! Options! IPOs! SPACs! Hydrogen trucks! Tesla up 800%! Market valuations in bubble territory. And my favorite “blue sky” stock - Virgin Galactic.       At first sight, there was nothing in 1928-1929 similar to the impact of Covid-19 on the economy. Actually, there was. In 1927, Ford closed down his entire company to retool for a new line of cars. 70,000 people were thrown out of work; many more at suppliers also lost their jobs. But everyone knew that Ford would start up production again.     Ford began production in 1928; 1929 was a record year for auto production. But in late summer and early fall, inventories began to build up.   Both periods were preceded by speculation in real estate. Both ended badly, closing off an alternative area of speculation.   Both periods (1920s and 2010s) saw an increase in income inequality. Large parts of the labor force, particularly farmers in the

It is a puzzlement why the stock market can go up while the economy is in a virus-caused depression. Much of the economy is in lockdown or closed because of decreased consumer demand. As many of one-third of workers and many small businesses are on federal life-support programs. Profits have disappeared. Large numbers of bankruptcies loom. Given the uncertainty, including recent record numbers of new virus cases, the usual stock evaluation metrics are worthless. With the economy tanking, how come the stock market has gone up dramatically? And continues to go up. THE STOCK MARKET Let’s decompose the stock market. When people talk about the stock market going up or down, they usually refer to an index such as the S&P 500 as the measurement. The S&P 500 is a market-value (cap, short for capitalization) weighted index. The ten most valuable companies account for over 20% of the total value of the index. There are over 3,000 actively traded stocks. But the 500 comp

Positive Externality You need to know three things about management and finance: 80/20 Rule Opportunity Cost Compound Growth 80/20 Rule (Also called Pareto’s Law) This idea says that a relatively small percent of actions account for a relatively large percent of outcomes. Find and concentrate your efforts on the important influences on your business. The percentages aren’t always 80/20. Some examples: 20% of your customers account for 80% of your sales. McDonald’s accidentally learned that 10% of its customers accounted for 60% of its daytime sales. And it was an identifiable group that they had never aimed its advertised at. 20% of your product line accounts for 80% of your sales and profits. Often, companies with a large product line with many variations find that 50% of their products account for over 90% of sales. An even smaller percent usually account for most of the profits. 20% of your SKUs account for 80% of your stockouts (and l