Suggested Strategies After the War With Iran

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BACKGROUND


Over the last two years, Iran's influence in the Middle East has declined. Iran lost a client state when the people of Syria overthrew the vicious regime of Assad. Hezbollah has been weakened by Israeli attacks and, after attacking Israel, Hama and Gaza has been massively assaulted by Israel, which occupies part of Gaza. Hamas was trained, armed, and financed by Iran. Iran's air defenses were degraded by earlier American and Israeli attacks.


The Iranian economy continues to weaken. Very high inflation rates and probable economic contraction and shortages. Much of the economy controlled by the Revolutionary Guards and the religious hierarchy. Massive demonstrations brutally put down by an extensive and brutal internal security force. An aging ayatollah, whose imminent death might have led to a power struggle among various groups in the government and security forces.


It has always been recognized by the Gulf States and the American national security analysts (according to Leon Panetta) that Iran could close down the Strait of Hormuz. The Gulf States could not keep that from happening. All parties knew of the shock to the world economy and the Gulf States' economies if that happened. But it would also further weaken Iran's economy - dependent on exported oil and natural gas -  and probably increase domestic discontent. These are probably why the Gulf States asked the United States not to attack Iran and why Iran would probably not close the Persian Gulf unless it was the last reaction to a massive attack.


Ultimate power in Iran rests with the Revolutionary Guards, a military force of around 200,000 which also controls much of the Iranian economy. It is improbable that a large amount of bombing will be able to loosen their tight control of the country. 


After the Hamas attack, Israel's position was clear. But Israel is a client state of the United States and could not alone launch a sustained, devastating air attack on Iran.


All of this argues against an attack on Iran.


AMERICAN ATTACK ON IRAN


So why did President Trump unleash American naval and air power on Iran? I don't know. President Trump has given a number of vague and contradictory justifications. It is not clear what he hopes to accomplish. His "red-line" threats are no longer credible. I doubt if he wants to be bogged down in a prolonged conflict with Iran or even a long-term major commitment to keep the Persian Gulf open.


Iran is a major producer of cheap drones. They are easy to produce, they don't need large factories. It is unlikely Iran will ever run out of them. The new economics of warfare say whichever side can use lots of drones most effectively cannot be defeated with superior airpower. Since the US is not involved in helping Ukraine, the current masters of drone warfare, the US doen't seem to have gotten the message.  


As China continues to rapidly build up its naval and air forces, more American military resources are needed in the western Pacific. If only as a potential deterrent to China invading Taiwan. The shock to the global computer industry and AI development would be greater than the current oil shock. It would cripple America's hi-tech computer industry for years. And the building of data centers and advanced chips is what is currently driven American economic growth and the stock market. 



AN ALTERNATIVE STRATEGY


I would suggest an alternative strategy should be to eliminate Russia as a geopolitical threat to Europe and the Middle East.



The US announces that, with our European allies, we will provide Ukraine with whatever weaponry and financial support it needs to defeat Russian forces. The goal is to remove Russia as a threat to Europe. It is also possible that the military and the oligarchs will remove Putin.


This would start to repair our tense relations with Europeans. Europe would be encouraged to continue their buildup of ground forces. The U.S. would contribute advanced technology weapons, intelligence, air defense, and support. The U.S. might be able to reduce troop levels in Europe.


Stop badmouthing European democratic leaders and stop supporting anti-democratic political parties, especially the neo-Fascist party in Europe. The last time Europe was in political turmoil, Fascist parties came to power in Germany and Italy. How did that turn out?


After the war, Ukraine should be admitted into NATO and the European Union. Ukraine would have a combat-hardened army and the most advanced drone technology in Europe. Western Europe would be protected by the combined forces of the buffer states of Poland and Ukraine.


If you want to destroy America as a world power, a combination of stupid mercantilist trade and tariff policies and no longer supporting democratic ideals will do it. Do you really believe that people like living in countries with authoritarian and corrupt governments? Governments they fear? That they wouldn't like to live in a country based on the ideals at the founding of America? And, ironically, the rest of the democratic world is rapidly moving towards free trade and mutual security treaties without the United States. 


Geopolitics is rapidly being based on the geoeconomics of the global economy. The last major power whose economy was based on producing oil and natural gas, was the Soviet Union. How did that work out?



CONSEQUENCES OF THE US ATTACK ON IRAN


The war makes it clear to the Gulf States they cannot defend themselves from Iranian attacks without upgrading their air defences and that their security currently depends on the US. This might strengthen their ties with Israel, which is selling their advanced air defense systems. Any lingering doubt they can negotiate with Iran was shattered when Iran started bombing the oil and natural gas installations of all Persian Gulf countries.

 

The war makes it clear to the world's nations how economically risky it is to depend on imported oil and natural gas. This is even true of the United States, which imports about half the oil it consumes. The situation only gets worse if the massive buildout of data centers increase the demand for electricity which is generated from the burning of natural gas.



This might also convince more people and some countries to accelerate their switch to EVs and renewable energy programs. If that happens, and the United States cannot produce competitive EVs and renewable energy systems, it will further weaken America's influence in the world. 




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