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Showing posts with the label Ukraine

Suggested Strategies After the War With Iran

BACKGROUND Over the last two years, Iran's influence in the Middle East has declined. Iran lost a client state when the people of Syria overthrew the vicious regime of Assad. Hezbollah has been weakened by Israeli attacks and, after attacking Israel, Hamas and Gaza has been massively assaulted by Israel, which occupies part of Gaza. Hamas was trained, armed, and financed by Iran. Iran's air defenses were degraded by earlier American and Israeli attacks. The Iranian economy continues to weaken. Very high inflation rates and probable economic contraction and shortages. Much of the economy controlled by the Revolutionary Guards and the religious hierarchy. Massive demonstrations brutally put down by an extensive and brutal internal security force. An aging ayatollah, whose imminent death might have led to a power struggle among various groups in the government and security forces. It has always been recognized by the Gulf States and  American national security analysts (according ...

Energy and Geopolitics II: The World ex-United States

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Middle East Oil Wells OVERVIEW Outside of the United States and Canada, most of the world’s oil and natural gas is owned and produced by governments or government-dominated companies with minority shareholders. Two examples of the latter, public companies with stockholders, are Petrobras in Brazil and Gazprom in Russia.   But government officials, especially the president, control management and make the important decisions. Production and investment decisions are not made based on financial criteria alone.   Often, internal political or foreign geopolitical factors are more important. Many countries' economies and government budgets depend critically on oil and natual gas revenue from exports. Maintaining internal peace and welfare programs are more important than rational economic considerations. What this means is that production and distribution decisions in these countries are made using different criteria than by private companies in the United State...

Ukraine and Russia

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Russian T-72 Tank Seen in Ukraine   HISTORICAL BACKGROUND Most of what is now Ukraine came under Russian control in the 1700s, due to the expansionist policies of Catherine the Great.   Part of western Ukraine (Galicia) was a province of the Austro-Hungarian Empire.   With the collapse of the Romanov regime in 1917 and Austria-Hungary in 1918, Ukrainians attempted to establish an independent republic.   During the Russian Civil War, Ukrainian nationalist groups fought on the side of the Communist Red Army because they knew that if the monarchy were reestablished, Ukraine would be forced back into the Russian Empire.   Their hopes for independence were crushed as the triumphant Communist regime absorbed Ukraine into the Soviet Union. Ukrainians suffered under the Stalinist regime.   Because the Ukraine was the “bread basket” of the Soviet Union, grain and other crops were systematically confiscated by the Communist government to feed in...