EconAir

Jakarta - 30 million people and sinking GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHICS Demographics, the study of the size and composition of population, will shape national and global economic growth and economic policy.   The period from 1950 to 2000 was highly unusual. The American “baby boom” started, temporarily reversing the long-term decline in birth rates.  Not just the United States but the global population experienced high birthrates and high population growth rates. In the middle of this period, partly due to more effective and more available birth control, birth rates began a rapid decline. The growth rate in world population began to fall. At the same time, much of the world’s population experienced rising standards of living. One consequence was longer life expectancies and rising average ages in industialized countries.   Countries with over a third of the world’s population and most of the world’s output now have birth rates below repla...

This primer is aimed at the long-term investor. But this does not mean that you should necessarily hold all of the stocks and funds in your portfolio for a long time. WHY STOCK PRICES GO UP The movement of a stock index such as the S&P 500 or an individual stock depends on two things: Earning per share (EPS) and changes in EPS. Stock price/earnings per share ratio (PE ratio) and changes in the PE ratio. If the PE ratio stays the same, an increase in EPS often leads to an increase in the stock price. The same is true of a stock index. Rising EPS combined with a rising PE ratio is often the reason why a stock goes up more than the average stock. Since 2009, the beginning of the stock market recovery from the last recession, most of the increase in stock prices has been due to the increase in earnings per share (EPS). Well, that was easy. Well, not really. The stock market is “forward-looking,” that is, it tries to anticipate change, especially cha...