EconAir

  Introduction to Economic Theory   It’s not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change. Charles Darwin                                               Introduction and Summary Economic theory, generalizations about economies, and economic history began as attempts to understand the Industrial Revolution. The economic theory posts on this blog describe and analyze economic development and economic growth since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the late 1700s.  Some writers describe the current economic trends as the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Other observers and commentators believe that information and communication technology and applications have become so central to the economy that we are in the Information Revolution. And others believe that we are at the beginning of the Biotechno...

  By Dennis Schuchman   Everyone is saying that AI is about to change the world, and they’re right. After  decades of missteps and false promises, AI is coming of age and it will change the  world in ways that I can’t even imagine.   I’ve been in the computer industry for over 40 years now, but I’m not a computer  scientist. In fact, I’ve never even taken a computer science course. I’ve learned a  number of programming languages, how various operating systems work and how to configure hardware and software systems and networks to create computing  environments that let users get their work done. So, I’m not a scientist, but maybe more of an engineer. Or maybe just a mechanic. When it comes to AI, then, I’m just as much an outsider as anyone. Well, almost.   I think that the way the media present AI gives people the wrong idea of what it’s about. People seem to think that AI combines the best of human brilliance with cold, hard computer logic....

  PRELIMINARY SUMMARY OF FISCAL 2024 BUDGET The deficit in fiscal 2024 was around $1.8 trillion, about $5.0 trillion in revenue and $6.8 trillion in expenses. Interest on the national debt this year is around $960 billion, over twice the interest on the fiscal 2021 budget. Interest expense this year passed outlays for the military. Leaving aside Social Security and Medicare, interest expense is about 20% of total budget outlays. Interest expense is about half the budget deficit.   The fiscal 2024 deficit was 6.4% of GDP.  SOME BASIC DEFINITIONS AND A LITTLE DETAIL Some basic definitions for people in government suffering from political amnesia:   Deficit.    The difference between the federal government’s spending and its revenue in one fiscal year.  The fiscal year starts on October 1.  So fiscal year 2024 started on October 1, 2023. You know right away this is going to be confusing. Debt .  Short for national debt or ...

The Future Labor Force   SUMMARY This post is a summary of some of the themes of previous posts on demographic and population projections, with an emphasis on how demographics will impact economic growth. See bibliography at the end of this post. For a list of all blog posts on a wide variety of topics, see  List of Posts by Topic on my blog.   Almost all countries outside of Africa are already facing or will soon face below replacement birth rates. Without immigration, this could lead first to smaller labor forces with greater numbers of retired citizens. Eventually, however, both the number of workers and retired citizens will decrease. During both stages of the transition, there will be issues of how to increase total output, maintain standards of living and allocate income between the two major age groups. See  Global Demographics and Population Projections .   Population and economies can growth even if birth rates are below replacement. But eventually both...