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China - Demographics and Economy

  China’s Demographics and Economy   Overview Overriding any economic discussion is that China is a totalitarian state and its political elite will not tolerate any independent source of power or wealth - sees them as a threat. All individuals are monitored and rated; a low score can have consequences.  A member of Communist Party is planted in every large corporation, and probably most small corporations, to watch owners and managers. As a result, many entrepreneurs are scared to make decisions. Many wealthy people want to leave China. A huge amount of wealth is being smuggled out of China.  Sales of many foreign firms are falling. American car companies in China are losing money. Net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is negative - foreign firms are taking more money out of China than new investment going into China.  A large part of foreign investment was Southeast Asians speculating in housing. There were always a lot of empty apartments held for price appreciation. Many Chinese famil
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Introduction to Economic Theory

  Introduction to Economic Theory   It’s not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change. Charles Darwin                                               Introduction and Summary Economic theory, generalizations about economies, and economic history began as attempts to understand the Industrial Revolution. The economic theory posts on this blog describe and analyze economic development and economic growth since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the late 1700s.  Some writers describe the current economic trends as the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Other observers and commentators believe that information and communication technology and applications have become so central to the economy that we are in the Information Revolution. And others believe that we are at the beginning of the Biotechnology Revolution. These posts will concentrate on the ongoing, underlying dynamics of economic change and, for simplicity, will us
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AI (Artificial Intelligence) and RI (Real Intelligence)

  By Dennis Schuchman   Everyone is saying that AI is about to change the world, and they’re right. After  decades of missteps and false promises, AI is coming of age and it will change the  world in ways that I can’t even imagine.   I’ve been in the computer industry for over 40 years now, but I’m not a computer  scientist. In fact, I’ve never even taken a computer science course. I’ve learned a  number of programming languages, how various operating systems work and how to configure hardware and software systems and networks to create computing  environments that let users get their work done. So, I’m not a scientist, but maybe more of an engineer. Or maybe just a mechanic. When it comes to AI, then, I’m just as much an outsider as anyone. Well, almost.   I think that the way the media present AI gives people the wrong idea of what it’s about. People seem to think that AI combines the best of human brilliance with cold, hard computer logic.   Wrong.   Let me tell you a story.   There
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Government Finance 101. Fiscal Policy: Welcome to Alice in Wonderland

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  PRELIMINARY SUMMARY OF FISCAL 2024 BUDGET The deficit in fiscal 2024 will be around $1.9 trillion, about $4.9 trillion in revenue and $6.8 trillion in expenses. Interest on the national debt this year is around $960 billion, over twice the interest on the fiscal 2021 budget. Interest expense this year passed outlays for the military. Leaving aside Social Security and Medicare, interest expense is about 20% of total budget outlays. Interest expense is about half the budget deficit.    SOME BASIC DEFINITIONS AND A LITTLE DETAIL Some basic definitions for people in government suffering from political amnesia:   Deficit.    The difference between the federal government’s spending and its revenue in one fiscal year.  The fiscal year starts on October 1.  So fiscal year 2024 started on October 1, 2023. You know right away this is going to be confusing. Debt .  Short for national debt or federal debt .  The sum total of all past yearly deficits minus yearly surpluses. Commentators o
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