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Demographics, Immigration and Future Economic Growth of the United States

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  Americans UPDATE (October 2025) Projections are changing rapidly because of the dramatic change in net immigration and a slight but continuous fall in the birth rate. Long run projections, assuming historic levels of immigration, now seem high. In January, the CBO's projections  showed "without immigration the population would shrink beginning in 2033" if birth rates stayed at current low levels. W ithout immigration, the CBO now expects the US population to start shrinking in 2031. If there is net negative immigration - more deportations and immigrants leaving the US - CBO projections indicate that the population may reach zero growth as early as around 2028.  About half of immigrants, about 6 million, entered the country with some protection from deportation, especially under asylum status. This protection is being withdrawn. There are some estimates that the total immigration population of the US is falling, about 1.5 million over the last year. This may indicate net...
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China's Economy, Politics, and Demography

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  INTRODUCTION According to the World Bank, China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was $18.7  trillion in 2024, compared to $29.2 trillion for the United States. China's economy was 64% the size of the American economy; a generation ago, in 2000, China's GDP was only 12% of America's. China has been a spectacular economic success story.  China has increased its share of global manufacturing from 6% in 2000 to 32% in 2024.  Manufacturing makes up 28 percent of China’s economy, compared with 11 percent in the United States. China sees it dominance of interrelated advanced technologies as key to its geopolitical global dominance of the United States. THE BEGINNING OF CHINA'S ECONOMIC RISE After the death of Mao in 1976, a more pragmatic group of Communist leaders seized power and began to change China. Their model was Singapore, whose population was mostly Chinese. Singapore’s economic growth model was that the dominant political party would direct economic growth. It in...
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