EconAir

    This is a case study of one country’s relationship with private companies in a major industry.   The central government has made the production of EVs a national priority with massive subsidies. The provincial, county, and local governments compete to attract an EV assembly plant. All levels of government entice new companies with a wide range of incentives and subsidies. The result is that in a short period of time about 100 new plants have been built; a few new ones are planned. The industry may have a total capacity of around 25-30 million cars.    Current production was 12.4 million cars in 2024; 2025 will probably be higher. Growth rates in the future will probably be lowered than in the past.   This is a common pattern for a new technology. In the United States, about 500 companies intended to produce cars. The difference with the current Chinese program is that most didn’t start production or produced very few cars. Only a few companies built a p...

INTRODUCTION I was, for many years, in charge of finding and analyzing acquisitions for a large company.   Then, for two years, I was an independent merger broker and took part in negotiations. MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS American corporations spend over $1 trillion a year buying other companies.   This is more than they spend on net new investment (minus data center investment).   Even more than they spend on boxes at pro sports stadiums. Buying another company is a risky corporate strategy.   The few studies I have read indicate that 70-80% of acquisitions are failures.   They do not earn the acquirer’s opportunity cost of capital.   Many are a total loss and result in future write-downs.   This failure rate from published research is similar to the information I collected.   My department would use discounted cash flow/net present value analysis to determine the maximum price we would pay for an acquisition (the present v...

        INTRODUCTION   In 1600, England had been an insular and agricultural nation, trading primarily with nearby northern Europe. By 1700, England’s commerce was complex and global, as London competed successfully with Amsterdam for American produce and Asian luxuries.   Alan Taylor,   American Colonies:  The Settling of North America, 258.   A theme that runs through this essay is the global maritime rivalry with Holland. England and Holland became global trade rivals in the 1600s. They fought three wars that weakened Holland, eliminating it as a naval rival.    England’s main instrument in its rivalry with the Dutch in Asia was the English East India Company (EIC). In America and the West Indies, it was the Navigation Acts.   By the end of the century, England was on its way to becoming a global maritime trading and naval power. The Dutch had lost out in the Americas but had established a vast trading network thro...