EconAir

    In the Beginning PRECONDITIONS OF THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION IN AMERICA Before industrialization began in the 1820s, there was a set of political institutions and cultural values, mostly inherited from England, that encouraged profit-seeking individuals to start new companies.  They included fairly secure property rights, increasing legal limits on monopolies, an independent judiciary that enforced contracts, emphasis on individual rights rather than social obligations, patents, tolerance of markets, and less government regulation of markets than in the past.  Much of this was stated or implied in the Constitution; an activist Supreme Court under John Marshall extended these trends. The Constitution also helped to create a national market and reduce transaction costs by mandating a national currency and limiting states’ ability to make economic policy that favored their own residents.   What America did not inherit from England was important. U...

  Earliest known photograph of slaves and cotton, around 1850 Brigit Katz, Smithsonian Magazine, December 6, 2019 A New Nation, America from 1789 to 1860   If you study American history from 1789 to 1860 (just before the start of the Civil War), the political history is very complicated. But remember what caused most of this political conflict and uneasy compromises - the dynamic changes in the underlying economy. Two in particular – the spectacular increase in slave-produced cotton and the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. They were related.   What is the Industrial Revolution? At its heart it is power-driven metal machinery producing huge quantities of goods. At first, the power was supplied by steam engines and water wheels. Later, in the 20 th  century, electricity. All of this used huge amounts of fossil fuels – first coal, later oil and natural gas were added.   A trend that continued from colonial times – the unusual population growth of America. Th...

  At current tax rates, in every year over the next 10 years, the deficit - the increase in the national debt - will be greater than the increase in revenue. A ll the increase in revenue will just pay for the increase in interest expense.   CBO forecast is probably optimistic. By law, the forecast cannot include a recession or any other unusual adverse event like future viruses. Based on past experience, it is likely that at least one recession will occur in the next eight years. In addition, the Trump tax cut is set to expire in 2025. If it is renewed, this will add a few trillion to the forecasted deficit and national debt.   The forecast was made before the new Biden administration spending programs were passed and student debt forgiveness was announced. The spending bills indicate that the cost of switching to renewables, modernizing the electricity grid, and decarbonizing is going to be very high in the future. Related, the cost of containing the consequences of past...