EconAir

    On domestic policy.  "Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for me.” On the Republican Party. "It's my party and I'll lie if I want to." “You know the mob makes you pay money, right?” says Trump about a proposed US protection fee for defending Taiwan.   On America's enemies. "America's real enemies are American cities run by Democratic mayors. This is where my new Department of War will focus. American soldiers can practice their new warfare ethos by gunning down unarmed American citizens." On dealing with political enemies. “My motto is always get even. When somebody screws you, screw them back in spades.” On domestic subversion. "Jaywalking is  a politically motivated terrorist act." (Comments. If so, patriotic car drivers should run over jaywalkers. They should be protected by Good Samaritan Acts. Any damage to their vehicles should be covered by the jaywalker's estate or auto insurance.) On deportati...

  AMERICAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY Tariffs on imported cars should help  American car companies. But it is more complicated. Tariffs on "Mexico" will hit American car companies and their suppliers particular hard. Trump has   threatened to raise tariffs on Canadian car imports in order to "permanently shut down the automobile manufacturing business in Canada." Most of the imported cars from Canada are made by American car manufactures.  Almost half the cars sold in the United States are imports. About 23% of cars sold in America come from Mexico; another 10% come from Canada. Most of them are assembled by American car companies.  About $100 billion in parts and subassemblies cross the border and will have to pay the tariff, in addition to the tariff on completed cars that are imported. Price of cars in America will go up and possibly car sales will go down. American car manufacturers are in poor financial shape and  cannot afford to absorb the cost increases. O...

The Wall Street Journal recently published an article on how China has  stopped publishing important economic statistics. The article also implies that some economic statistics are manipulated.  Getting reliable figures has always been a problem. Years ago I read a thorough analysis of Chinese figures that indicated China was overestimating its real GDP growth rate by 2% a year. I still use that correction. In recent years, it may be even larger. If 2% is a reasonable correction, it means that China's real economic growth rate in 2024 was around 3%, not the reported 5%, which was about the 2024 U.S. real growth rate. Many estimates come from private or non-government sources, as illustrated in this article. Some numbers have been almost impossible to get. Much of China's macro economy occurs and is reported at the provincial and local level. Local officials have always fudged the figures since their careers depend on their figures being equal to or greater than the goals ...