Demographics, Immigration and Future Economic Growth of the United States
Americans SUMMARY Population projections and demographic changes, especially in the different age cohorts, should be seen along with large annual fiscal deficits and the large and increasing national debt. The connection is the forecasts of large increases in the over-65 age group and the shrinking working age (and tax-paying) age group. This essay should be read along with Government Finance 101. Fiscal Policy: Welcome to Alice in Wonderland. UPDATE (February 2026) The Census Bureau's estimate is that at July 2025 the U.S. population only grew by 1.8 million over the prior 12 months. This was the lowest percent increase in U.S. history except for the first year of Covid. Net immigration for this period is estimated at 1.3 million. The current estimate for the 12 months after July 2025 is about 300,000. Some current estimates put it at zero, partly due to more aggressive deportation. For the period 2010-2020, immigration accounted for 60% of t...