Demographics, Immigration and Future Economic Growth of the United States
Americans SUMMARY Population projections and demographic changes, especially in the different age cohorts, should be seen along with large annual fiscal deficits and the large and increasing national debt. The connection is the forecasts of large increases in the over-65 age group and the shrinking working age (and tax-paying) age group. This essay should be read along with Government Finance 101. Fiscal Policy: Welcome to Alice in Wonderland. UPDATE (June and August 2026) The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has updated its long-run population projections. It now believes that deaths will exceed births starting sometime in 2030. The gap will widen over time. So, no natural increase in population. All increase will come from net immigration. The CBO projects that net immigration will start increasing from 2026 levels and only slightly and slowly decline up to 2056. In that year, net immigration will equal the increase of deaths over births, resulti...