EconAir

    Demographic Issues   This is a summary of the essays in this blog on demographic projections.    It is not only the arc of population increases and then decreases that is important. It is what happens under the arc. Birth rates fall below replacement, the number of births go down, the size of the prime ages labor force decreases while the number of retired people go up. Eventually, the number of older citizens start to go down and the total population decreases faster and in larger numbers. This scenario is now happening in an increasing number of countries and then will happen for the global population.   The long-run demographic projections and discussion in this blog are based on the Lancet projections of birth rates and population using 2017-2020 data. Forecasts for global trends and for some countries have changed since the Lancet projections. The key projection is birth rates for each country, for geographical regions, and for the entire world. ...

    OVERVIEW Much of this is taken from the summary of the longer and more detailed Global Demographics and Population Projections This is a summary and overview of the demographics and population projection essays on this blog (links below). The world is at the beginning of a major shift in population, from large population increases since 1950 to decreasing populations in many countries and, in the long run, in the world as a whole. This historical shift in global and national populations will have a big influence on what happens in the future.   In summary, ·        Huge population increases since 1900, especially after 1950. ·        Because of a big decrease in birth rates in the world outside of Africa, starting with below-replacement birth rates in the 1970s, global population will increase until the 2060s and then start to decrease. ·       T here are, according to the United Nations , 63 countries w...

  City Life for Most Residents Before reading this essay and related essays on demographics and population projections, you might want to start with an introduction: Introduction to Demographics and Global Population Projections   SUMMARY Global population has more than doubled since 1970, going from 3.7 billion to the current (November, 2023) total of 8.0 billion ( UN numbers ). The  Lancet  long-term projection is that world population will peak around 9.7 billion in the 2060s and then begin to decline, reaching around 8.8 billion people in 2100.   In the most recent United Nations projection (2024), global population is expected to peak at about 10.3 billion sometime in the 2080s and then fall to 10.2 billion in 2100. By 2030,  1.4 billion  people will be over the age of 60, with low- and middle-income countries accounting for 80% of older populations. About 25% of the total will be in China. This number is equal to China's or India's total populat...