Demographics, Immigration and Future Economic Growth of the United States
Americans SUMMARY Population projections and demographic changes, especially in the different age cohorts, should be seen along with large annual fiscal deficits and the large and increasing national debt. The connection is the forecasts of large increases in the over-65 age group and the shrinking working age (and tax-paying) age group. This essay should be read along with Government Finance 101. Fiscal Policy: Welcome to Alice in Wonderland. UPDATE (November 2025) Combining the recent changes in the birth rate and net immigration, plus the "baked-in" projection that Americans over the age of 65 will increase by about 50 million by 2060 (see below), it seems likely that the number of Americans in the working ages cohort (15-64) will decrease at least 40 million by 2060. From about 230 million in 2025 to 190 million in 2060. Well before then, it seems likely that America, like other wealthy countries, will have extensive...