EconAir

The Future Manufacturing Labor Force   SUMMARY This post is a summary of some of the themes of previous posts on demographic and population projections, with an emphasis on how demographics impact economic growth. See bibliography at the end of this post. For a list of all blog posts on a wide variety of topics, see  List of Posts by Topic   on my blog.   Two-thirds of countries are experiencing birth rates below replacement. Almost all countries outside of Africa have or will soon have below replacement birth rates. The latest countries that have below replacement birthrates are India, Bangladesh and the Philippines. Without immigration, this could lead first to smaller labor forces with greater numbers of retired citizens. Eventually, however, both the number of workers and retired citizens will decrease. During both stages of the transition, there will be issues of how to increase total output, maintain standards of living, and allocate income between the two majo...

  Americans SUMMARY   Population projections and demographic changes, especially in the different age cohorts, should be seen along with large annual fiscal deficits  and the large and increasing national debt. The connection is the forecasts of large increases in the over-65 age group and the shrinking working age (and tax-paying) age group.  This essay should be read along with  Government Finance 101. Fiscal Policy:  Welcome to Alice in Wonderland. UPDATE (June and August 2026) The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has updated its long-run population projections. It now believes that deaths will exceed births starting sometime in 2030. The gap will widen over time. So, no natural increase in population. All increase will come from net immigration. The CBO projects that net immigration will start increasing from 2026 levels and only slightly and slowly decline up to 2056. In that year, net immigration will equal the increase of deaths over births, resulti...