EconAir

The Future Manufacturing Labor Force   SUMMARY This post is a summary of some of the themes of previous posts on demographic and population projections, with an emphasis on how demographics impact economic growth. See bibliography at the end of this post. For a list of all blog posts on a wide variety of topics, see  List of Posts by Topic   on my blog.   Almost all countries outside of Africa are already facing or will soon face below replacement birth rates. Without immigration, this could lead first to smaller labor forces with greater numbers of retired citizens. Eventually, however, both the number of workers and retired citizens will decrease. During both stages of the transition, there will be issues of how to increase total output, maintain standards of living, and allocate income between the two major age groups. For background, see  Global Demographics and Population Projections .   Population and economies can growth even if birth rates are below...

  Americans SUMMARY   Population projections and demographic changes, especially in the different age cohorts, should be seen along with large annual fiscal deficits  and the large and increasing national debt. The connection is the forecasts of large increases in the over-65 age group and the shrinking working age (and tax-paying) age group.  This essay should be read along with  Government Finance 101. Fiscal Policy:  Welcome to Alice in Wonderland.   UPDATE (November 2025) Combining the recent changes in the birth rate and net immigration, plus the "baked-in" projection that Americans over the age of 65 will increase by about 50 million by 2060 (see below), it seems likely that the number of Americans in the working ages  cohort  (15-64)  will decrease at least 40 million by 2060. From about 230 million in 2025 to 190 million in 2060. Well before then, it seems likely that America, like other wealthy countries, will have extensive...