EconAir

The Future Manufacturing Labor Force   SUMMARY This post is a summary of some of the themes of previous posts on demographic and population projections, with an emphasis on how demographics will impact economic growth. See bibliography at the end of this post. For a list of all blog posts on a wide variety of topics, see  List of Posts by Topic on my blog.   Almost all countries outside of Africa are already facing or will soon face below replacement birth rates. Without immigration, this could lead first to smaller labor forces with greater numbers of retired citizens. Eventually, however, both the number of workers and retired citizens will decrease. During both stages of the transition, there will be issues of how to increase total output, maintain standards of living, and allocate income between the two major age groups. For background, see  Global Demographics and Population Projections .   Population and economies can growth even if birth rates are below r...

  Americans UPDATE (August 2025) Recent data from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention show the U.S. birth rate has fallen below 1.6, the lowest rate on record. With a falling birth rate, far fewer legal and illegal immigrants and increasing deportations, the United States is now on the same demographic falling population path as most other industrialized and industrializing countries.       Reported in The Economist , "America's fertility crash reaches                                                                                                                    a new low," August 5, 2025.      SUMM...