The Crimea, Russia, and U.S. Options

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Ukraine President
Russia’s illegal invasion and annexation of the Crimea will set off a chain of events that could strengthen U.S. power and influence, especially in Eastern Europe.  Putin is gambling that President Obama and conservative Republican leaders lack the will to energetically react to Russian expansion.  First U.S. reactions have been weak.  Unless there is a change, Putin might be encouraged to annex other Russian-dominated areas outside current Russian borders.

Ukraine has tried to balance Western and Russian pressure.  The popular revolt against the pro-Russian Ukrainian Prime Minister upset the balance and precipitated the crisis.

Putin may have decided to upset the unstable status quo in Eastern Europe, starting with Ukraine and Moldova.  Russia's next step could be to annex the eastern third of Ukraine.  This area includes the Donetz Basin, which contains a Russian majority and industrial resources.  If successful, Russia could then move along the north shore of the Black Sea to Odessa and maybe to the Rumanian border.  Russia already controls the eastern third of Moldova, presenting Ukraine, especially the Kiev region, with the possibility of being threatened or attacked from both the east and the southwest.

The Russians are very concerned about their long-term demographic trends.  Russia’s population is declining.  Russia's population is now about 1/2 that of the U.S. and the gap is widening.  And, in the foreseeable future, European Russians will be outnumbered by Asians (east of the Urals) and Muslims within Russia.  Adding millions of European Russians may have played a part in the decision to annex the Crimea.

All of this has domestic advantages for Putin.  His moves are popular in Russia.  Future leaders will probably also have to be nationalistic and probably expansionist, putting pressure on Russia's periphery.  It was naive of the U.S. to think that Russian nationalism suddenly disappeared with the Soviet Union.

An expansionist Russian foreign policy entails huge risks.

About 40% of the population in the Crimea is Ukrainian and Tartar.  Both groups in the region have centuries-old historical grudges against the Russians.  By making a de facto control de jure, the Russians are making sure that 40% of the Crimean population will now feel like a conquered minority and will look to Ukraine for support.  

 The takeover might also finally unite the pro-West political leaders in the Ukraine. Ukraine has already signed the economic cooperation treaty with the EU that started the crisis.  Ukraine needs immediate financial support.  With loss of territory and increased Russian pressure, Ukraine will probably ask to join NATO if it can be guaranteed U.S. military support in weapons systems and training.  If this happens, Russia will be faced with another enemy, along its crucial southern European border.  Putin is gambling this won’t happen.

 It is also likely that Putin's land grabs will reinvigorate NATO and focus  U.S. attention on European security issues.  

All this will affect Poland. Poland does not have a border with Russia, except for a short strip to the north with the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad.  Poland has long borders with Ukraine and Belarus.  Belarus - the old Russian province of Byelorussia or White Russia - is between Poland and Russia.  But Belarus is for all intents and purposes still a province of Russia.  Poland, and NATO, still has to plan that Russia could put troops on the Polish border and attack across the northern Polish plain.  Poland will probably have to step up military spending and ask for more NATO support.

The U.S. is putting an advanced air defense system in Eastern Europe, mostly in Poland.  One consequence will probably be to extend the system to southern Balkan countries and step up other types of military aid to Eastern European countries that are members of NATO or the EU.

The Crimean takeover should drive Eastern European countries even closer to NATO and the EU.  But the U.S. has to provide substantial military support in training and weapons.  Given the sequester's effects on the military budget, there is some doubt this will happen.

Beside military support to NATO, especially Eastern Europe, the U.S. has a number of good responses, including a rapid increase in oil and especially natural gas exports to Europe.  I'm not sure Obama has the political will to overcome opposition within the Democratic Party to the pipelines and LNG plants to quickly approve them, although Putin has handed him a potent new argument.   Combined with developing huge untapped reserves of natural gas in shale around the world, the Europeans would be assured that they would not be dependent on Russian gas in a few years.  

Russian sales of oil and natural gas account for about 70% of their export income.  Combined with economic sanctions, a fall in foreign investment, capital flight and a loss of tourism, the Russian economy could be severely damaged.

Maybe Western European countries will wake up and realize that Russia is still a political and military threat.  If the U.S. does not act energetically and decisively, European countries, especially Eastern European countries, may decide they have to accommodate Russian aggression.  The danger is greatest for the next few years when Europe will still be dependent on Russian natural gas.

Turkey, a long-time member of NATO, should finally be admitted into the European Union.

Another possible consequence of Russian expansion could be America’s relationship with China.  If China sees Russia as more aggressive, this could improve relations between China and the U.S.  An extreme but interesting gambit would be for the U.S. to support Chinese claims to resource-rich eastern Siberia.

===================================================================

See related post, President Obama Learns Some Game Theory.









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