EconAir

  AGING POPULATION, LABOR FORCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH The U.S. birth rate is not only below replacement but it is the lowest since records began in 1909. The United States’ population is expected to increase about 10% (30 million people) over the next 10 years; this assumes the recent levels of immigration that are higher than the reduced levels announced by President Trump. Some statistics on the aging of the U.S. population:   .     According to the Census Bureau, by 2030, the number of Americans age 65 and older will have increased by 20 million.    .     At that point, one in five Americans will be 65 or older, which is up from less than one in 10 in 1960.    .     By 2060, the Population Reference Bureau expects the number of Americans 65 and older to more than double from 46 million today to over 98 million.    .     In less than two decades, older adults are set to outnumber kids (under 18) for the first time in US history.      All of the population increase in 10 or 20 years wil

ADAM SMITH VISITS A PIN FACTORY   Adam Smith’s description of a pin factory is on the first page of  The Wealth of Nations .  (Chapter 1 – “Of the Division of Labour”)  Drawings of pin factories of this period show workers using hand tools. Smith says the process can be broken down into 18 distinct steps, including packaging the pins. Smith mentions that pin factory workers were poorly paid, despite their high productivity.    Adam Smith says he visited a pin factory employing 10 men who produced 48,000 pins per day.  If each of the ten workers had done all the steps themselves, Smith says each worker could produce only 10 or 20 pins per day.  So the pin factory replaces 2,400 to 4,800 pin makers. The increase in labor productivity (output per person per day) is as high as 50 times that of individual pin makers.     This reduction in unit cost or average cost (AC) and the huge increase in quantity produced do not just replace older methods of organization and production.  They increa

Jakarta - 30 million people and sinking INTRODUCTION Since the beginning of the Agricultural Revolution about 10,000 years ago, demographics meant high birth rates, high infant mortality rates and high death rates. Until the Industrial Revolution, starting in the late 1700s. At first, death rates fell faster than birth rates. Then better public health and health care reduced mortality rates from infection, epidemics and diseases. Then a combination of more effective birth control and social and economic change reduced birth rates.  During these transition periods, average life expectancies increased. After World War II, the global population exploded: 1900 – Appoximately 1.6 billion people 1950 – 2.6 billion 2000 – 6.1 billion 2020 – 7.8 billion The industrialized parts of the world now have low birth rates – mostly below replacement – and low death rates. Birth rates are also falling in much of the rest of the world.  GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHICS