EconAir

  INTRODUCTION   Japan gets special consideration because it is further along the demographics declining population curve than any other large country. Unless there are major changes in healthcare technology, immigration, public policy, and birth rates, all other industrialized countries will follow Japan down the path of declining and aging populations, and smaller labor forces.    PROJECTIONS   Japan’s current (2024) population is around 122 million people. This is the 15 th  year of population decline, down from a high of 128 million. The yearly decreases so far have been small, both in numbers and as a percent of the total. This is expected to continue until 2030. Then population decreases are expected to accelerate to a population of 104 million in 2050 and 87 million in 2070. At the end of the century, Japan’s population is projected to be 60-65 million people, about half its current size.   The high dependency ratio (the number of elderly divide...

  INTRODUCTION   The English East India Company (EIC) might be a model for how a multinational corporation could survive and prosper in an increasingly chaotic and hostile geopolitical world.   HISTORIC BACKGROUND   The East India Company (EIC) was chartered in 1600 by Queen Elizabeth I to promote and monopolize English trade with Asia. England, a poor country in the 1600s but with colonial ambitions after defeating the Spanish Armada in 1588, outsourced its colonial ambitions to the EIC and other private companies.    The East India Company was privately funded by 218 merchants and other investors. It was the first modern multinational corporation. The EIC was a joint stock company, that is, a company with publicly traded stock bought and sold in a secondary stock market.  Like modern companies, the EIC issued financial reports, held annual meetings for stockholders, and had quarterly meetings of the Board of Directors.    The EIC was v...

There are a number of forecasts of what the world will be like after the virus. Let’s take a look at some of them. Many long-term trends have been accelerated by the virus.  Probably the most cited example has been the accelerated move to digital-based transactions and behavior. This has occurred among both consumers and businesses. I think we have hit an inflection point. Before, there was a great deal of discussion about how one industry or market was becoming more dependent on digital platforms and automation based on artificial intelligence. The Internet of Things, online shopping and ordering, business conferencing, telemedicine. Or how a particular company was transforming an industry (Amazon, Uber). But now we see that the entire economy –  al l industries and markets – rely on digital. The technology and rapid adaptation are accelerating the shifts. Income inequality is bad and probably getting worse.  The usual reasons given are outsourcing in th...

Jakarta - 30 million people and sinking GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHICS Demographics, the study of the size and composition of population, will shape national and global economic growth and economic policy.   The period from 1950 to 2000 was highly unusual. The American “baby boom” started, temporarily reversing the long-term decline in birth rates.  Not just the United States but the global population experienced high birthrates and high population growth rates. In the middle of this period, partly due to more effective and more available birth control, birth rates began a rapid decline. The growth rate in world population began to fall. At the same time, much of the world’s population experienced rising standards of living. One consequence was longer life expectancies and rising average ages in industialized countries.   Countries with over a third of the world’s population and most of the world’s output now have birth rates below repla...