Posts

Showing posts with the label Global Economy

After the Virus: Economic Consequences

There are a number of forecasts of what the world will be like after the virus. Let’s take a look at some of them. Many long-term trends have been accelerated by the virus.  Probably the most cited example has been the accelerated move to digital-based transactions and behavior. This has occurred among both consumers and businesses. I think we have hit an inflection point. Before, there was a great deal of discussion about how one industry or market was becoming more dependent on digital platforms and automation based on artificial intelligence. The Internet of Things, online shopping and ordering, business conferencing, telemedicine. Or how a particular company was transforming an industry (Amazon, Uber). But now we see that the entire economy –  al l industries and markets – rely on digital. The technology and rapid adaptation are accelerating the shifts. Income inequality is bad and probably getting worse.  The usual reasons given are outsourcing in the global econo

Global Demographics and Economic Growth

Image
Jakarta - 30 million people and sinking INTRODUCTION Since the beginning of the Agricultural Revolution about 10,000 years ago, demographics meant high birth rates, high infant mortality rates and high death rates. Until the Industrial Revolution, starting in the late 1700s. At first, death rates fell faster than birth rates. Then better public health and health care reduced mortality rates from infection, epidemics and diseases. Then a combination of more effective birth control and social and economic change reduced birth rates.  During these transition periods, average life expectancies increased. After World War II, the global population exploded: 1900 – Appoximately 1.6 billion people 1950 – 2.6 billion 2000 – 6.1 billion 2020 – 7.8 billion The industrialized parts of the world now have low birth rates – mostly below replacement – and low death rates. Birth rates are also falling in much of the rest of the world.  GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHICS