EconAir

Saudi Oil Minister Introduction: The Fall in Oil Prices in 2015 Crude oil prices temporarily rose because Saudi Arabia signaled that it would cooperate with OPEC and non-OPEC producers to “stabilize” oil prices.   Nothing specific was mentioned.   At the current price and for political reasons, it is unlikely Saudi Arabia and its Persian Gulf allies will cut production or negotiate joint production cuts with other large producers.   The comments are probably an indication that Saudi Arabia might be part of a global reduction in crude oil production if prices go much lower and the political situation in Syria changes. Until recently, Saudi Arabia was seeing the results it wanted.   Some are economic, having to do with the current and future price and production of oil.   The economic targets were shale production in the U.S and tar sands production in Canada.   The geopolitical targets were Iran and Russia.   But unexpected economic and...

INTRODUCTION Much of the political news is about negotiations.   American politicians, in both domestic and foreign disputes, don’t seem to know much about negotiation strategy.   Maybe a little applied game theory would help. IS NEGOTIATION POSSIBLE?   The first question is whether or not negotiation is possible or just a waste of time and effort. Negotiations will be fruitless if at least one party believes there are no possible outcomes that are better than not negotiating.   Compromise is impossible.   Fanatics, true believers, proponents of “Victory at any cost” or “Give me victory or give me death” or parties who believe their opponents are evil are not likely to negotiate. Sometimes leaders act to limit their options or those of their followers.   The famous historical example is when Cortes burned his boats that brought him and his men to Mexico.   Returning to Cuba was no longer an option.   Cortes forced his men to...