EconAir

  A play about John Maynard Keynes recently opened in London. People are paying to see a play about an economist? I hope it’s a comedy. Or at least a musical like  Hamilton .   Keynes was born in England in 1883. He was educated at Eton and Cambridge. His father was a professor at Cambridge. His mother was mayor of Cambridge in 1932-33.   He spent the first 10 years of his professional life analyzing or thinking about the English economy that was at the end of 100 years of England’s political and economic dominance of the global economy (including English colonies) through advanced manufacturing technology, exports, and overseas capital investment. But already, by 1910, Germany and the United States had larger industrial output with better and more innovative technology (new industries). England was falling behind. The United States had higher productivity in key British industries of cotton textiles and coal. The country was living off of the income from past domest...

Secretary of the Treasury UPDATE (8/2026) The expected yearly deficit for fiscal year 2026, ending September 30, 2026, is $2.1 trillion. This is higher than the deficit of $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2025. One reason is that the expected $200 billion increase in government revenue from increased tariffs has to be refunded to importers and American companies because the Supreme Court declared the tariffs unconstitutional. The national debt will be over $40 trillion by the end of this fiscal year. Total interest expense will be around $1.1 trillion, with the interest rate a little under 3%. Thus, interest expense is now half of the total yearly deficit. Another way of looking at this is that half of new bond borrowing goes to paying interest on the national debt. Projections are that the national debt will be around $50 trillion in five years (FY 2031). Yearly interest expense might be between $1.75 trillion and $2.0 trillion, which assumes an interest rate of 3.5% to 4%. Th...

Introduction The United States has been the world’s only superpower since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.   In some ways it is more difficult to manage foreign policy without concentrating on one big rival. The United States is vastly stronger in military strength than any possible coalition of enemy forces.   But since 9/11 we are feeling less secure despite huge military and domestic security expenditures.   Our military and national security expenditures of around $1.1 trillion are greater than the military expenditures of next ten countries combined (and most are allies).   This is a consequence of a professional military, a result of eliminating conscription after the Vietnam War, and the highly technical (capital intensive) nature of American military forces and strategy.   There is almost no national debate on U.S. military interventions in other countries.   One reason is that most Americans have no direct involvement...