China's Economic Statistics
The Wall Street Journal recently published an article on how China has stopped publishing important economic statistics. The article also implies that some economic statistics are manipulated. Getting reliable figures has always been a problem. Years ago I read a thorough analysis of Chinese figures that indicated China was overestimating its real GDP growth by 2%. I still use that correction. In recent years, it may be even larger. If 2% is a reasonable correction, it means that China's real economic growth rate in 2024 was around 3%, not the reported 5%, which was about the 2024 U.S. real growth rate. Many estimates come from private or non-government sources, as illustrated in this article. Some numbers have been almost impossible to get. Much of China's macro economy occurs and is reported at the provincial and local level. Local officials have always fudged the figures since their careers depend on their figures being equal to or greater than the goals given to the...