EconAir

  INTRODUCTION   The English East India Company (EIC) might be a model for how a multinational corporation could survive and prosper in an increasingly chaotic and hostile geopolitical world.   HISTORIC BACKGROUND   The East India Company (EIC) was chartered in 1600 by Queen Elizabeth I to promote and monopolize English trade with Asia. England, a poor country in the 1600s but with colonial ambitions after defeating the Spanish Armada in 1588, outsourced its colonial ambitions to the EIC and other private companies.    The East India Company was privately funded by 218 merchants and other investors. It was the first modern multinational corporation. The EIC was a joint stock company, that is, a company with publicly traded stock bought and sold in a secondary stock market.  Like modern companies, the EIC issued financial reports, held annual meetings for stockholders, and had quarterly meetings of the Board of Directors.    The EIC was v...

It is a puzzlement why the stock market can go up while the economy is in a virus-caused depression. Much of the economy is in lockdown or closed because of decreased consumer demand. As many of one-third of workers and many small businesses are on federal life-support programs. Profits have disappeared. Large numbers of bankruptcies loom. Given the uncertainty, including recent record numbers of new virus cases, the usual stock evaluation metrics are worthless. With the economy tanking, how come the stock market has gone up dramatically? And continues to go up. THE STOCK MARKET Let’s decompose the stock market. When people talk about the stock market going up or down, they usually refer to an index such as the S&P 500 as the measurement. The S&P 500 is a market-value (cap, short for capitalization) weighted index. The ten most valuable companies account for over 20% of the total value of the index. There are over 3,000 actively traded stocks. But the 500 comp...

There are a number of forecasts of what the world will be like after the virus. Let’s take a look at some of them. Many long-term trends have been accelerated by the virus.  Probably the most cited example has been the accelerated move to digital-based transactions and behavior. This has occurred among both consumers and businesses. I think we have hit an inflection point. Before, there was a great deal of discussion about how one industry or market was becoming more dependent on digital platforms and automation based on artificial intelligence. The Internet of Things, online shopping and ordering, business conferencing, telemedicine. Or how a particular company was transforming an industry (Amazon, Uber). But now we see that the entire economy –  al l industries and markets – rely on digital. The technology and rapid adaptation are accelerating the shifts. Income inequality is bad and probably getting worse.  The usual reasons given are outsourcing in th...

Wedgwood Anti-Slavery Cameo A better introduction to the beginning of the Industrial Revolution than Adam Smith is the history of Josiah Wedgwood and the Wedgwood Pottery Company. This is how one company actually ushered in the Industrial Revolution. The revolutionary generation that first adopted steam engines saw the following trends and changes: Manufacturing was being modernized by a small group of entrepreneurs. Much of the new raw material processing and manufacturing was concentrated in a small area in the middle of England, away from London. These modernizing entrepreneurs formed a new economic, intellectual and social network. Modernizing entrepreneurs like Wedgwood tended to be members of Dissenting sects (like Quakers) or Nonconformist churches (not members of the Church of England), Whigs (liberals) in politics, and believers in “progress.” They were optimistic about the future, influenced by the ideas of Hume, Rousseau, Locke and Adam Smith. They believed...

Jakarta - 30 million people and sinking GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHICS Demographics, the study of the size and composition of population, will shape national and global economic growth and economic policy.   The period from 1950 to 2000 was highly unusual. The American “baby boom” started, temporarily reversing the long-term decline in birth rates.  Not just the United States but the global population experienced high birthrates and high population growth rates. In the middle of this period, partly due to more effective and more available birth control, birth rates began a rapid decline. The growth rate in world population began to fall. At the same time, much of the world’s population experienced rising standards of living. One consequence was longer life expectancies and rising average ages in industialized countries.   Countries with over a third of the world’s population and most of the world’s output now have birth rates below repla...