EconAir

  At current tax rates, in every year over the next 10 years, the deficit - the increase in the national debt - will be greater than the increase in revenue. A ll the increase in revenue will just pay for the increase in interest expense.   CBO forecast is probably optimistic. By law, the forecast cannot include a recession or any other unusual adverse event like future viruses. Based on past experience, it is likely that at least one recession will occur in the next eight years. In addition, the Trump tax cut is set to expire in 2025. If it is renewed, this will add a few trillion to the forecasted deficit and national debt.   The forecast was made before the new Biden administration spending programs were passed and student debt forgiveness was announced. The spending bills indicate that the cost of switching to renewables, modernizing the electricity grid, and decarbonizing is going to be very high in the future. Related, the cost of containing the consequences of past...

    WHY STOCK PRICES GO UP   The movement of a stock index such as the S&P 500 or an individual stock depends on two things:   Earnings per share (EPS) and changes in EPS. Stock price/earnings per share ratio (PE ratio) and changes in the PE ratio.   If the PE ratio stays the same, an increase in EPS leads to an increase in the stock price. The same is true of a stock index. Rising EPS combined with a rising PE ratio is often the reason why a stock goes up more than the average stock.   Well, that was easy. Well, not really.   The stock market is “forward-looking,” that is, it tries to anticipate changes, especially changes in EPS and the PE ratio. There is a great amount of forecasting. But since the forecasted changes are in the future, they are inherently uncertain. The forecasts of some companies’ EPS are more uncertain than others. Some are very uncertain. For example, the future sales and earnings of a small biotech company may depend on the ...

    Full disclosure.    I’m a retired professor of Economics.  I was a full-time professor but also taught as an adjunct at other colleges. I taught both traditional age day students and adult night students. I designed and taught online courses. I was on my college’s budget committee for many years and twice served on the accreditation review committee.   Before becoming a professor, I was an economist and strategic planning manager at three large corporations, a consultant to small businesses, and ran a small company. I’ve been on the boards of five nonprofit organizations.   What Does Your Tuition Buy?   There is a private college near me that charges full-time students tuition an average of $40,000 a year (after discounts off of list price). About $4,000 a course.  The professor is paid about $8,000 to teach a course (half that if the professor is an adjunct).  Assuming 20 students in the course, each student is paying...

    A Professor’s Guide:  How to Be a Superior College Student   This is a summary of what I’ve observed during 25 years as a college professor and student advisor. There are many online posts, YouTube videos, and books on how to be a good college student but most of them are mostly lists of generalities. This post is from a professor’s perspective (not usually made public). It gives specific, helpful hints on how to perform better as a student.   To be a superior student, you must become a skilled student, use your limited resource (time) efficiently, and understand your market – professors.   This post also discusses a strategic plan on how to finance college.   How to read a textbook For each new chapter, look at the end-of-chapter summary (and any online summary) first. That tells you what’s important. Concentrate on this material.   Be an active reader. Underline. Make marginal notes. Talk to yourself (“What the hell does this mean?”) Ha...

Roman Legion Why Study Rome? Americans have focused on comparisons between Rome and America twice in American history.  The first time was during the period from before the Revolution to after the ratification of the Constitution and Bill of Rights, when the founding fathers and others looked to the Roman Republic for ideas and inspiration on how to structure the new government. After the American Revolution, the founding fathers, having read the Roman authors detailing the collapse of the Roman republic, worried about internal threats to the survival of their new republic.   The second time was when the United States became a superpower, especially after WWII, and then again after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Commentators compared America to the Roman Empire at the height of its power. There was some discussion about how America became a permanent warfare state and how it affected domestic democracy and civil society. ...