Nigeria

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This case study of Nigeria, taken from


Global Demographics and Population Projections


illustrates the problems that recently-independent countries, especially in Africa, have had. Rapid population growth has made it difficult to deal with these problems in the past; continued large population growth in the future will be even more burdensome. 


Nigeria became independent in 1960. Its population was 45 million people. In 2024 its population was 233 million people. Nigeria’s capital, Lagos, is already one of the largest cities in the world. In 2050 its projected population will be in the range of 375-400 million people, depending on how fast its birth rate continues to come down. Around that year Nigeria will replace the United States as the third most populous country in the world. 

 

By 2100, Nigeria is projected to have at least 700 million people, which will be about equal to the projected population of China.

 

Nigeria’s birth rate in 2023 was 4.5, substantially higher than the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman. Although the birth rate is down from the high of 6.9 in 1979, it is still one of the highest in the world.

 

This forms the backdrop for discussing Nigeria’s current problems and prospects for economic growth and development. One conclusion is obvious: Nigeria will need very high and sustained economic growth rates to overcome the rapid increase in population and increase the country’s real per capita income. 

 

Nigeria’s economy still depends on oil; Nigeria is a major oil exporter. Real per capita income goes up and down with the price of oil.

 

One of the successful areas of economic growth is telecommunications. About 90% of the population has mobile phones and about 25% have internet access. Data center capacity is expanding.

 

Nigeria’s borders were established by England, Nigeria’s colonial master, in 1898. England combined several kingdoms into an arbritary
administrative area.
 

The largest ethnic group – Hausa – makes up about 30% of the population. But there are about 275 distinct ethnic groups and about 500 languages. The population is about evenly divided between Christians and Muslims. Muslims predominate in the north, Christians in the south. There is resentment in the north that the south has benefited more from the oil wealth. The Muslim population, with a higher birth rate, is increasing its share of the total population.  


Crime is a serious problem. At one point crime became so bad that the American state department issued a directive that Americans should avoid Lagos’ airport. 

 

Nigeria has had a tumultuous political history since independence. National politics has been dominated by military coups, fighting among top military officers for power, and brutal military governments. Civilian governments have tended to be corrupt. 2023 was the first national election in Nigeria’s history where there was not a “civilian” candidate who was not a former military ruler.  

 

There was a brutal civil war shortly after independence. The predominantly Muslim region in the north is experiencing jihadist terrorism.

 

Politics has suffered from widespread corruption and the inability to support economic development beyond oil extraction. The country suffers from high inflation and large government fiscal deficits.

 

The oil producing region of Nigeria is one of the most polluted areas in the world.

 

As farmers attempt to expand food production, the result has been massive deforestation as bad as in the Amazon. Even with this, food production has not kept up with population growth. Nigeria has gone from being a net food exporter to a net food importer.

 

Global warming has made producing food more difficult. It is one reason for the large rural migration to the cities. 

 

Electricity

 

A crucial reason for the lack of economic growth has been the government’s failure to provide enough dependable electricity.

 

The electricity power grid is owned and operated by the government. Of Nigeria’s 233 million people, over 90 million do not have access to electricity. Nigeria’s electricity production per person is one of the lowest in the world. Long term underinvestment results in frequent blackouts and shortages. Many users, including the government, do not pay their electricity bills; revenue accounts for about 65% of operating costs.

 

Private gas-powered generators generate more than twice as much electricity as the power grid. Nigerians’ spending on off-grid power is equal to 60% of the government’s entire budget. Over half of the country’s manufacturing sector is not connected. New data centers have to provide their own power.

 

There are plans to build off-grid solar and other renewable energy projects. Even if successful, they will not close Nigeria’s massive electricity shortage. And if successful, there will probably be fewer customers on the grid, making it even harder to expand and modernize it. 

 

Government energy policy seems inconsistent; it would like to have solar projects connected to the grid, but it is also thinking about banning solar panel imports.

 

This discussion of electricity is based on The Economist, “A nation in the dark,” May 10, 2025, 38.

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