EconAir

  Americans UPDATE (September 2025) The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has updated its population projections based on a lower birth rate and lower net immigration. "The CBO projects that the U.S. population will increase from 350 million in 2025 to 367 million in 2055. Deaths will be greater than births starting around 2031; the gap gets larger over time. So all population growth after 2031 will be from net immigration. If net immigration falls to zero, the U.S. population will stop growing in 2031 and start a slow decrease after then. UPDATE (August 2025) Recent data from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention show the U.S. birth rate has fallen below 1.6, the lowest rate on record. With a falling birth rate, far fewer legal and illegal immigrants and increasing deportations, the United States is now on the same demographic falling population path as most other industrialized and industrializing countries.       Reported in The Economist , "Am...

Berkeley 1962 - 30 students against racial discrimination I was mildly political in high school. In 1960, I picketed the Democratic Convention that was in L.A. with a small group of radical Quakers protesting atmospheric testing of atomic weapons. The protest was in front of the Biltmore Hotel, where the candidates were staying. We were outnumbered by federal agents with cameras. After our little protest, I wandered into the Biltmore. While loitering in the main corridor, John Kennedy walked by. He was a few feet away. I didn’t think anything of it until his brother was assassinated eight years later in a different Los Angeles hotel. Looking back, I was amazed at the lack of security. A kid in a protest just walks into the hotel – no security at the door, no identity checks, very little security (if any) around Kennedy. I guess all the government agents were too busy developing the film they took of our protest and writing detailed reports on how Quakers were threatening America’s secu...

  The Red Queen's Race TWO DEFINITIONS   Fed funds rate .    The Fed funds rate is the interest rate banks charge other banks that borrow their excess reserves. It is a very short-term (overnight) rate. An increase in the Fed funds rate increases the cost of capital of large banks (net borrowers) and puts pressure on these banks to raise their lending rates. A change in the rate also changes the rate charged by other sources of short-term funds.   The Fed funds rate is the most watched interest rate in the United States and probably the world. It is not set by supply and demand in financial markets. It is set (fixed) by the Federal Reserve Bank (the Fed), America’s central bank.    The Fed funds rate determines or heavily influences almost all other short-term interest rates in financial markets. It also indirectly influences many other longer term interest rates. It summarizes how the Fed views the economy and near-term changes. It is at the heart of ...