EconAir

  Americans   SUMMARY   The longer-run projection is a population of about 335 million people in 2100 (Lancet), about the same number as today. But there is a very wide range of uncertainty around this projection, partly depending on future birth rates and levels of immigration.   The U.S. birth rate is around 1.6, below the replacement level of 2.1. This is inline with most industrialized countries but higher than Japan and China.  Because of demographics, the United States could have a better economic future than almost any other industrial or industrializing country. Almost all these countries will experience declining populations (if levels of immigration do not substantially increase), many with population decreases of 30-50%. Also, most of these countries will have higher dependency ratios (a higher percent of old people) than the U.S. That is, the U.S. will have a relatively younger population. This is partly due to higher birth rates and high rates of im...

  INTRODUCTION   Japan gets special consideration because it is further along the demographics declining population curve than any other large country. Unless there are major changes in healthcare technology, immigration, public policy, and birth rates, all other industrialized countries will follow Japan down the path of declining and aging populations, and smaller labor forces.    PROJECTIONS   Japan’s current (2024) population is around 122 million people. This is the 15 th  year of population decline, down from a high of 128 million. The yearly decreases so far have been small, both in numbers and as a percent of the total. This is expected to continue until 2030. Then population decreases are expected to accelerate to a population of 104 million in 2050 and 87 million in 2070. At the end of the century, Japan’s population is projected to be 60-65 million people, about half its current size.   The high dependency ratio (the number of elderly divide...

Adam Smith - Our Founding Father ADAM SMITH VISITS A PIN FACTORY   Adam Smith’s description of a pin factory is on the first page of  The Wealth of Nations .  (Chapter 1 – “Of the Division of Labour”)  Drawings of pin factories of this period show workers using hand tools. Smith says the process can be broken down into 18 distinct steps, including packaging the pins. Smith mentions that pin factory workers were poorly paid, despite their high productivity.    Adam Smith says he visited a pin factory employing 10 men who produced 48,000 pins per day.  If each of the ten workers had done all the steps themselves, Smith says each worker could produce only 10 or 20 pins per day.  So the pin factory replaces 2,400 to 4,800 pin makers. The increase in labor productivity (output per person per day) is as high as 50 times that of individual pin makers.     This reduction in unit cost or average cost (AC) and the huge i...