How To Be Elected President

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Presidential elections are now a billion dollar business, with massive marketing campaigns run by specialists. Bestsellers minutely analyze winning and losing strategies and tactics. Yet an important factor in successful campaigns is usually ignored.

It was formally called “the common touch” but with the increased political influence of the South and Southwest I call it “the good ole boy” factor. It goes like this. The American voter is having a beer in a bar. The two presidential candidates walk in. Which candidate would the voter prefer to have a beer with?

Let’s look at some of the choices:

Franklin Roosevelt or Herbert Hoover?
Harry Truman or Thomas Dewey?
John Kennedy or Richard Nixon?
Jimmy Carter or Gerald Ford?
Ronald Reagan or Jimmy Carter?
Bill Clinton or George Bush?
George W. Bush or Al Gore? (Granted, Al Gore won the popular vote but George W. Bush’s political persona made it a lot closer than it should have been.)
Barack Obama or John McCain?

The last example brings in another factor, the voter’s feeling about the prior president. Lyndon Johnson, a true “good ole boy,” would have beaten any Republican because of the legacy of the Kennedy assassination. Gerald Ford had the additional burden of the Nixon administration. George Bush was helped by the continuing popularity of the Reagan administration but even winning a war didn’t help his reelection bid against the “good ole boy” campaign of Bill Clinton.

The Barack Obama/John McCain example is more complicated. At the beginning of the campaign, I would say the “good ole boy” effect was in McCain’s favor. But as the campaign progressed, McCain appeared to be a little more strident and flaky, somewhat dissipating his “good ole boy” advantage. He also had to carry the burden of the unpopularity of the Bush administration. Almost no one would want to be seen talking with George W. So the question became: Would the American voter want to share a beer with Barack Obama or John McCain and George W. Bush?

I think the “good ole boy” effect helps explain the surprisingly good showing of Mike Huckabee, who will probably be a serious contender for the Republican nomination the next time around. But he will be up against a candidate with an even better “good ole boy” persona, Sarah Palin. Anyone who ignores or ridicules this factor will seriously underestimate her political appeal.

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