Birth Rates and Population Projection Issues
Demographic Issues This is a summary of the essays in this blog on demographic projections. It is not only the arc of population increases and then decreases that is important. It is what happens under the arc. Birth rates fall below replacement, the number of births go down, the size of the labor force decreases while the number of retired people go up. Eventually, the number of older citizens start to go down and the total population decreases faster and in larger numbers. This scenario happens in an increasing number of countries and then for the global population. The demographic projections and discussion in this blog are based on the Lancet projections of birth rates and population using 2017-2020 data. Forecasts for global trends and for some countries have changed since the Lancet projections. The key projection is birth rates for each country, for geographical regions, and for the entire world. But how good are estimates of future...