EconAir

    Fiscal Policy   Some basic definitions:   Deficit.    The difference between the federal government’s spending and its revenue in one fiscal year.   The fiscal year starts on October 1.  So fiscal year 2024 started on October 1, 2023. You know right away this is going to be confusing. Yearly deficits before the coronavirus were around $1 trillion per year. For fiscal year 2021, the deficit was $2.8 trillion. Total stimulus spending and tax cuts were around $4 trillion. The Congressional Budget Office’s latest projection is an average yearly deficit of $1.5 trillion for the next 10 years. This should be viewed as a minimum.   Social Security and Medicare are funded by their own taxes and working down their trust funds (selling government bonds). Subtracting Social Security and Medicare taxes from the Federal budget, other revenue covers about 50-60% of all other government spending; the other 40-50% is the deficit and financed by borrowing.   Debt .  Short for national debt.

There is a story, possibly true, that when the British surrendered to American and French forces at Yorktown, effectively ending British rule of America, someone in the British army sang or played an old English folk song, “The World Turned Upside Down.”    (See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World_Turned_Upside_Down ) I think I know how the British felt.   Many of the assumptions economists have made about economic reality and economic policies now seem out-of-date or even reversed. UNITED STATES The Fed fought inflation; now it sets inflation targets when there is no inflation. The Fed worries about deflation even though the major source is a fall in energy and commodity prices. Another source is the fall in the prices of technology products. There is a large increase in the money supply, large government deficits, a large trade deficit, and a large decrease in the unemployment rate. Economic theory and past experience says that there should be an increas