EconAir

    INTRODUCTION There are three continental powers - the United States, China, and Russia. India is potentially the fourth, dominating  the  Indian sub-continent and the Indian Ocean.   Geopolitics looks at geography and history as inputs into the relations among nations. A corollary is that countries have “natural” opponents and allies. But how this works out depends on the domestic and foreign policies of the leaders and governments of the countries. The history of long-distance Eurasian trade highlights the crucial role of India and the Indian Ocean. For over 2,500 years, the Indian Ocean was the vital route of trade between Europe and the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and China. India was the transshipment center of this trade. Substantial numbers of Roman gold coins have been found in India. Today, 85% of global trade in goods goes by sea. Over 40% is oil. There are three major "choke-points" in seaborne trade - the Red Sea/Suez Canal, the Persian Gulf/S...

BACKGROUND Over the last two years, Iran's influence in the Middle East has declined. Iran lost a client state when the people of Syria overthrew the vicious regime of Assad. Hezbollah has been weakened by Israeli attacks and, after attacking Israel, Hamas and Gaza has been massively assaulted by Israel, which occupies part of Gaza. Hamas was trained, armed, and financed by Iran. Iran's air defenses were degraded by earlier American and Israeli attacks. The Iranian economy continues to weaken. Very high inflation rates and economic contraction and shortages. Much of the economy is controlled by the Revolutionary Guards and the religious hierarchy. Massive demonstrations have been brutally put down by an extensive and vicious internal security force. An aging ayatollah, whose imminent death might have led to a power struggle among various groups in the government, the religious hierarchy and the security forces. It has always been recognized by the Gulf States and  American nati...