EconAir

“The age is running mad after innovation.” Samuel Johnson In the Beginning Why study economic theory and analysis, read economic history, and make economic forecasts? The short answer is because of the Industrial Revolution and the attempt to understand its dynamics and structure. Economics is an attempt to understand the material world we live in, the environment created by the Industrial Revolution. THE BEGINNING OF THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION The Industrial Revolution began in England in the late 1700s. It then spread to America  and western European countries. This post will summarize its origins in England and describe the early decades of the Industrial Revolution in America. The Industrial Revolution was a radical break in history. But in England, many of the preconditions were already in place, as can be seen by the history of the Wedgwood company. The revolutionary generation that first adopted steam engines saw t...

      It was a lovely summer day – nice and warm, not too hot. Ribbit hopped down to the pond and decided to tan her legs. She was lying lazily on a lily pad, half asleep. Whenever she felt a little movement in the air, she quickly stuck out her long tongue and caught a fly. Then she caught a grasshopper. Before Ribbit could eat the grasshopper, it cried out “Wait! If I could teach you how to hop better, would you let me go?” Ribbit thought about the frog race that was about to start in the big, open field. Ribbit didn’t enter the races because most of the other frogs were bigger or had stronger legs than her. “OK,” said Ribbit. The grasshopper said, “I’ve been watching all you frogs hop and you’re really not very good at it. Some of you are too big and fat and others hop too hard. That’s why you hop a little bit and then have to rest. I’ll show you how to be a better hopper. When you hop, lean your body forward, push your face up and out and stick out your tongue. That’l...

  Introduction to Economic Theory   It’s not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change. Charles Darwin                                               Introduction and Summary Economic theory, generalizations about economies, and economic history began as attempts to understand the Industrial Revolution. The economic theory posts on this blog describe and analyze economic development and economic growth since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the late 1700s.  Some writers describe the current economic trends as the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Other observers and commentators believe that information and communication technology and applications have become so central to the economy that we are in the Information Revolution. And others believe that we are at the beginning of the Biotechno...

  By Dennis Schuchman   Everyone is saying that AI is about to change the world, and they’re right. After  decades of missteps and false promises, AI is coming of age and it will change the  world in ways that I can’t even imagine.   I’ve been in the computer industry for over 40 years now, but I’m not a computer  scientist. In fact, I’ve never even taken a computer science course. I’ve learned a  number of programming languages, how various operating systems work and how to configure hardware and software systems and networks to create computing  environments that let users get their work done. So, I’m not a scientist, but maybe more of an engineer. Or maybe just a mechanic. When it comes to AI, then, I’m just as much an outsider as anyone. Well, almost.   I think that the way the media present AI gives people the wrong idea of what it’s about. People seem to think that AI combines the best of human brilliance with cold, hard computer logic....

  The Red Queen's Race TWO DEFINITIONS   Fed funds rate .    The Fed funds rate is the interest rate banks charge other banks that borrow their excess reserves. It is a very short-term (overnight) rate. An increase in the Fed funds rate increases the cost of capital of large banks (net borrowers) and puts pressure on these banks to raise their lending rates. A change in the rate also changes the rate charged by other sources of short-term funds.   The Fed funds rate is the most watched interest rate in the United States and probably the world. It is not set by supply and demand in financial markets. It is set (fixed) by the Federal Reserve Bank (the Fed), America’s central bank.    The Fed funds rate determines or heavily influences almost all other short-term interest rates in financial markets. It also indirectly influences many other longer term interest rates. It summarizes how the Fed views the economy and near-term changes. It is at the heart of ...