EconAir

INTRODUCTION I was, for many years, in charge of finding and analyzing acquisitions for a large company.   Then, for two years, I was an independent merger broker and took part in negotiations. MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS American corporations spend over $1 trillion a year buying other companies.   This is more than they spend on net new investment.   Even more than they spend on boxes at pro sports stadiums. Buying another company is a risky corporate strategy.   The few studies I have read indicate that 70-80% of acquisitions are failures.   They do not earn the acquirer’s opportunity cost of capital.   Many are a total loss and result in future write-downs.   This failure rate from published research is similar to the information I collected.   My department would use discounted cash flow/net present value analysis to determine the maximum price we would pay for an acquisition (the present value of the future net cash flo...

There is a story, possibly true, that when the British surrendered to American and French forces at Yorktown, effectively ending British rule of America, someone in the British army sang or played an old English folk song, “The World Turned Upside Down.”    (See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World_Turned_Upside_Down ) I think I know how the British felt.   Many of the assumptions economists have made about economic reality and economic policies now seem out-of-date or even reversed. UNITED STATES The Fed fought inflation; now it sets inflation targets when there is no inflation. The Fed worries about deflation even though the major source is a fall in energy and commodity prices. Another source is the fall in the prices of technology products. There is a large increase in the money supply, large government deficits, a large trade deficit, and a large decrease in the unemployment rate. Economic theory and past experience says that there should...

Janet in Wonderland Anyone who believes that financial markets are rational is not looking at the current government bond markets.    The U.S. 10-year government bond is paying around 2.5%.    Believe it or not, the 10-year Spanish government bond is paying less.   The German 10-year government bond is paying a little over 1%, less than a 2-year U.S. bond. If you were not a finance major, skip this paragraph.   The yield curve is incredibly flat.   It is only this way because the Fed hasn’t realized yet the Great Recession has been over for five years.   More sinister explanations rely on conspiracy theories.   When given the choice, I always go with stupidity. According to CNBC (yes, I’m still addicted to my financial soap opera), the interest rates on German and Spanish 10-year bonds are at a 200-year low.   I don’t know how they know that.   Germany didn’t exist 200 years ago but Prussian war bonds probably did. ...