EconAir

  AGING POPULATION, LABOR FORCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH The U.S. birth rate is not only below replacement but it is the lowest since records began in 1909. The United States’ population is expected to increase about 10% (30 million people) over the next 10 years; this assumes the recent levels of immigration that are higher than the reduced levels announced by President Trump. Some statistics on the aging of the U.S. population:   .     According to the Census Bureau, by 2030, the number of Americans age 65 and older will have increased by 20 million.    .     At that point, one in five Americans will be 65 or older, which is up from less than one in 10 in 1960.    .     By 2060, the Population Reference Bureau expects the number of Americans 65 and older to more than double from 46 million today to over 98 million.    .     In less than two decades, older adults are set to outnumber kids (under 18) for the first time in US history.      All of the population increase in 10 or 20 years wil

Why Study Rome? Americans have focused on comparisons between Rome and America twice in American history.  The first time was during the period from before the Revolution to after the ratification of the Constitution and Bill of Rights, when the founding fathers and others looked to the Roman Republic for ideas and inspiration on how to structure the new government. After the American Revolution, the founding fathers, having read the Roman authors detailing the collapse of the Roman republic, worried about internal threats to the survival of their new republic.   The second time was when the United States became a superpower, especially after WWII, and then again after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Commentators compared America to the Roman Empire at the height of its power. There was some discussion about how America became a permanent warfare state and how it affected domestic democracy and civil society. And now a third time. Hav

    INTRODUCTION:  SIMILARITIES AND DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 1929 AND 2020   Gamestop! Short squeeze! Bitcoin! Options! IPOs! SPACs! Hydrogen trucks! Tesla up 800%! Market valuations in bubble territory. And my favorite “blue sky” stock - Virgin Galactic.       At first sight, there was nothing in 1928-1929 similar to the impact of Covid-19 on the economy. Actually, there was. In 1927, Ford closed down his entire company to retool for a new line of cars. 70,000 people were thrown out of work; many more at suppliers also lost their jobs. But everyone knew that Ford would start up production again.     Ford began production in 1928; 1929 was a record year for auto production. But in late summer and early fall, inventories began to build up.   Both periods were preceded by speculation in real estate. Both ended badly, closing off an alternative area of speculation.   Both periods (1920s and 2010s) saw an increase in income inequality. Large parts of the labor force, particularly farmers in the

  INTRODUCTION   The English East India Company (EIC) might be a model for how a multinational corporation could survive and prosper in an increasingly chaotic and hostile geopolitical world.   HISTORIC BACKGROUND   The East India Company (EIC) was chartered in 1600 by Queen Elizabeth I to promote and monopolize English trade with Asia. England, a poor country in the 1600s but with colonial ambitions after defeating the Spanish Armada in 1588, outsourced its colonial ambitions to the EIC and other private companies.    The East India Company was privately funded by 218 merchants and other investors. It was the first modern multinational corporation. The EIC was a joint stock company, that is, a company with publicly traded stock bought and sold in a secondary stock market.  Like modern companies, the EIC issued financial reports, held annual meetings for stockholders, and had quarterly meetings of the Board of Directors.    The EIC was vertically integrated. The company designed, built