EconAir

Jakarta - 30 million people and sinking GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHICS Demographics, the study of the size and composition of population, will shape national and global economic growth and economic policy.   The period from 1950 to 2000 was highly unusual. The American “baby boom” started, temporarily reversing the long-term decline in birth rates.  Not just the United States but the global population experienced high birthrates and high population growth rates. In the middle of this period, partly due to more effective and more available birth control, birth rates began a rapid decline. The growth rate in world population began to fall. At the same time, much of the world’s population experienced rising standards of living. One consequence was longer life expectancies and rising average ages in industialized countries.   Countries with over a third of the world’s population and most of the world’s output now have birth rates below repla...

This primer is aimed at the long-term investor. But this does not mean that you should necessarily hold all of the stocks and funds in your portfolio for a long time. WHY STOCK PRICES GO UP The movement of a stock index such as the S&P 500 or an individual stock depends on two things: Earning per share (EPS) and changes in EPS. Stock price/earnings per share ratio (PE ratio) and changes in the PE ratio. If the PE ratio stays the same, an increase in EPS often leads to an increase in the stock price. The same is true of a stock index. Rising EPS combined with a rising PE ratio is often the reason why a stock goes up more than the average stock. Since 2009, the beginning of the stock market recovery from the last recession, most of the increase in stock prices has been due to the increase in earnings per share (EPS). Well, that was easy. Well, not really. The stock market is “forward-looking,” that is, it tries to anticipate change, especially cha...

Positive Externality You need to know three things about management and finance: 80/20 Rule Opportunity Cost Compound Growth 80/20 Rule (Also called Pareto’s Law) This idea says that a relatively small percent of actions account for a relatively large percent of outcomes. Find and concentrate your efforts on the important influences on your business. The percentages aren’t always 80/20. Some examples: 20% of your customers account for 80% of your sales. McDonald’s accidentally learned that 10% of its customers accounted for 60% of its daytime sales. And it was an identifiable group that they had never aimed its advertised at. 20% of your product line accounts for 80% of your sales and profits. Often, companies with a large product line with many variations find that 50% of their products account for over 90% of sales. An even smaller percent usually account for most of the profits. 20% of your SKUs account for 80% of your stockouts (and l...