EconAir

        INTRODUCTION   In 1600, England had been an insular and agricultural nation, trading primarily with nearby northern Europe. By 1700, England’s commerce was complex and global, as London competed successfully with Amsterdam for American produce and Asian luxuries.      Alan Taylor,     American Colonies:  The Settling of North America, 258. England's rise to global power and wealth depended on new sources of trade in the 1600s. In Asia, this was a result of trade developed by the English East India Company (EIC). In America, new sources of trade were created by the English settlements in North America and the West Indies. Because of these developments, total tonnage carried in English ships doubled between 1660 and 1688. From Asia came pepper and other spices along with Indian cotton cloth. From America came tobacco and sugar. The rapid increase in sugar production after 1660 in the West Indies led to slave trade with Af...

BACKGROUND Over the last two years, Iran's influence in the Middle East has declined. Iran lost a client state when the people of Syria overthrew the vicious regime of Assad. Hezbollah has been weakened by Israeli attacks and, after attacking Israel, Hamas and Gaza has been massively assaulted by Israel, which occupies part of Gaza. Hamas was trained, armed, and financed by Iran. Iran's air defenses were degraded by earlier American and Israeli attacks. The Iranian economy continues to weaken. Very high inflation rates and economic contraction and shortages. Much of the economy is controlled by the Revolutionary Guards and the religious hierarchy. Massive demonstrations have been brutally put down by an extensive and vicious internal security force. An aging ayatollah, whose imminent death might have led to a power struggle among various groups in the government and security forces. It has always been recognized by the Gulf States and  American national security analysts (accor...

    Demographic Issues   This is a summary of the essays in this blog on demographic projections.    It is not only the arc of population increases and then decreases that is important. It is what happens under the arc. Birth rates fall below replacement, the number of births go down, the size of the prime ages labor force decreases while the number of retired people go up. Eventually, the number of older citizens start to go down and the total population decreases faster and in larger numbers. This scenario is now happening in an increasing number of countries and then will happen for the global population.   The long-run demographic projections and discussion in this blog are based on the Lancet projections of birth rates and population using 2017-2020 data. Forecasts for global trends and for some countries have changed since the Lancet projections. The key projection is birth rates for each country, for geographical regions, and for the entire world. ...